社区黑料

Updated听/听EDlection 2018: From coast to coast, 社区黑料 is profiling a new education-oriented campaign each week. See all our recent profiles, previews, and reactions at The74Million.org/Election (and watch for our Election Night live blog Nov. 6)

It has been a whiplash two years in American politics, and that has trickled down to education policy, from the controversial appointment of Betsy DeVos as education secretary to heated debates about school safety that have arisen in the wake of several mass school shootings.

Now, with midterm elections only days away, it鈥檚 time for voters to weigh those policy choices and decide whether they鈥檇 like to make a change.

On many fronts, the nation remains as divided as when President Trump unexpectedly won the 2016 election. Politicos have for months predicted a 鈥渂lue wave鈥� that will elect Democrats to Congress, governor鈥檚 mansions, and statehouses across the country, but many polls remain very close.

For edu-watchers, the midterms could signal a big change in federal education policy in at least one chamber of Congress. At the state level, a blue wave could impact the shape of everything from funding to education reform.

A change seems increasingly likely in Congress, as Democrats look to retake control of the House. They need to gain 23 seats to win the majority; the statisticians at the usually reliable website FiveThirtyEight聽.

An average of the so-called generic ballot, which asks voters broadly whether they prefer Democrats or Republicans without considering specific candidates, gives Democrats an 8.3 percentage point lead in the House as of Oct. 31. A Democratic majority would mean a 180-degree shift on education policy, starting with tough oversight of the Education Department.

Though the House looks good for the Democrats, their onetime hopes of retaking the Senate have slipped, based on key battleground polls released in the past few days.

Democratic incumbents in three pivotal seats 鈥� Joe Donnelly in , Claire McCaskill in , and Bill Nelson in 鈥� got disappointing poll results. Democrats absolutely must keep these three seats to have any chance of retaking control.

The federal races are taking up most of the national media spotlight, but for the education world, state races, particularly governor鈥檚 races, will have a bigger impact on K-12 policy. In states like Colorado, Michigan, and Nevada, the outcomes of the midterms could have ramifications for their education reform agendas; in others, like Iowa, Kansas, and Oregon, it may signal big changes for school funding. And across the country, it鈥檚 an important election not just for education but also for educators: Scores of teachers are running for office, including a former National Teacher of the Year, up for a congressional race in Connecticut, and Wisconsin鈥檚 education chief, who is making a run at governor.

Dems look to make gains in Midwest

WISCONSIN: Collectively, Midwestern states make up the most promising region in the country for Democrats, who could win as many as five governor鈥檚 races across Big 10 country. Wisconsin, where incumbent governor and liberal scourge Scott Walker is running for a rare third term, could provide Democrats their sweetest victory of all on election night.

After dealing decisive blows against teachers unions and slashing public school funding in his first few years in office, Walker now finds himself locked in a tight race with state Superintendent Tony Evers.

Some doubted that the genial Evers could keep pace with Walker, a fierce campaigner and past victor of three statewide races. But polls give the state鈥檚 top education authority a narrow edge heading into the final week. released Oct. 24 pointed to a three-point Evers advantage, while released earlier in the month found Evers leading by eight points. Local experts believe that the competition could be much closer, however.

鈥淔rankly, I don鈥檛 buy that 鈥� this isn鈥檛 going to be an eight- or 10-point election,鈥� Alan Borsuk, a longtime Wisconsin observer for the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, told 社区黑料 in an interview.

Initially a skeptic of Evers鈥檚 chances, Borsuk says that he has been impressed by the Democrat鈥檚 willingness to trade blows with Walker.

While the contest has elevated a statewide schools official in a year when education funding has loomed large as a campaign issue, Borsuk adds that the fate of Wisconsin schools hasn鈥檛 dominated debates between the candidates.

鈥淚t just doesn鈥檛 motivate too many people 鈥� but for the people it motivates, it is a really core divide between Walker being allied with the private schools and the voucher programs, and Evers being allied with public schools and the unions,鈥� he said. 鈥淪o for a fairly-decent-sized group of voters, that鈥檚 a really easy identification tag.鈥�

MICHIGAN: In neighboring Michigan, Democrats have long held an advantage in the governor鈥檚 race. They may even stand to flip one or both houses of the state legislature, which would allow them to undo some of the choice-oriented education reforms favored by native Michigander DeVos.

Democrat Gretchen Whitmer, a former state senator, leads Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette , according to polling aggregator RealClearPolitics. Recent surveys conducted by Michigan Information and Research Service (MIRS) and the Detroit Free Press have , but leading forecaster Cook Political Report still rates the race as 鈥淟ean Democrat,鈥� indicating a clear edge for Whitmer.

Though the race has largely been a referendum on Republicans like incumbent Governor Rick Snyder and President Donald Trump, a contentious debate over Michigan鈥檚 charter schools and education finance has also developed over the past few years. Whitmer has pledged to introduce new restrictions on the state鈥檚 lightly regulated charter sector, while Schuette has defended DeVos鈥檚 record as an education activist in the state.

OHIO: Ohio鈥檚 gubernatorial race might be the tightest in the country. Democrat and former state Attorney General Richard Cordray has spent months locked in a dead heat with Attorney General Mike DeWine, who unseated him in 2010. The ultimate bellwether state shifted from supporting George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 to Obama in 2008 and 2012, only to pivot back to Trump two years ago. At the state level, however, it has been much more consistently Republican, electing just one Democratic governor since 1986.

As in Michigan, the state鈥檚 embattled charter sector has played an outsize role in the campaign. The January closure of the Electronic Classroom of Tomorrow (ECOT), a huge online charter school, amid allegations of fraud has turned a spotlight on Republicans like DeWine, who have accepted significant donations from the organization in the past.

Recent developments have done little to separate the candidates: A released on Monday gave Cordray a three-point lead, including a sizable advantage among female voters. Baldwin Wallace University countered on Tuesday with pointing to a near tie, with DeWine leading Cordray by just 0.6 points.

SOUTH DAKOTA: South Dakota鈥檚 gubernatorial race showcases both the potential and the limits of elevated Democratic energy in 2018. Although the state hasn鈥檛 elected a Democratic governor since 1974, Senate Minority Leader Billie Sutton with Republican Congresswoman Kristi Noem in the most recent poll from the Argus Leader, the state鈥檚 largest newspaper.

Since small states like South Dakota are seldom polled, we may not have a truly accurate read on the race until Election Day. A Sutton victory would be a sign of one of the best Democratic midterms in years 鈥� but the newly elected governor would still be hemmed in by the overwhelmingly conservative tilt of the state. Republicans will almost undoubtedly hold veto-proof majorities in both the state Senate and House.

鈥淩epublicans could govern without the guy,鈥� David Wiltse, a professor of politics at South Dakota State University, said of Sutton. 鈥淚 would be surprised if there was any huge, substantive difference in terms of legislative outcomes if Sutton does win. The legislature will still be in the driver鈥檚 seat in terms of the agenda.鈥�

That means that Sutton won鈥檛 be able to create a state-funded pre-K option 鈥� South Dakota is one of just six states nationwide 鈥� without serious buy-in from the state GOP. to refund tuition costs to teachers working in underserved areas and fund new college scholarships would likely sit idle as well.

IOWA: Democrat Fred Hubbell seems to have a small lead,聽, over incumbent Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds in Iowa, though聽 and the last one was conducted in mid-September, practically an eternity given the frequency of polling in other tight races across the country. Most independent handicappers call the race a toss-up.

Education is a top issue, with 47 percent citing it as one of the top two concerns for the next governor to address, according to that same poll. The main issue is funding, with Democrats saying there isn鈥檛 enough, and Republicans saying funding is at record highs,聽.

Toss-up races across the South

FLORIDA: In the South, Democrats are making solid runs at governor鈥檚 mansions they haven鈥檛 held in decades, though the races are widely considered toss-ups. Florida, for instance, could see its first Democratic governor this millennium, polls show, though the race is still close.

Democrat Andrew Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee, was ahead by just one point against former representative Ron DeSantis in a聽 conducted Oct. 23 to 26, with five percent of those surveyed still undecided.

鈥淲e may not know on that one for a while on Tuesday night,鈥� Carol Weissert, chair of civic education and political science at Florida State University, told 社区黑料. (The last two governor鈥檚 races were decided by about a point each, as were the state鈥檚 2012 and 2016 presidential contests.)

, conducted by the New York Times and Siena College around the same time, found Gillum with a larger lead, about 5 points. In both, Gillum holds sizable leads with traditional Democratic constituencies: women, young people, and black and Hispanic voters.

Gillum needs African Americans, young people and voters unaffiliated with either party to turn out, she said. Enthusiasm around Gillum鈥檚 campaign could also boost Nelson, the Senate incumbent, and down-ballot races, including the state legislature.

It would be one of the taller orders for Democrats this cycle, but control over the Florida Senate is within reach if the party has a great night and captures five seats. That would certainly put him in a better negotiating position as a newly elected governor.

Republicans have their own draw, with popular Republican Gov. Rick Scott running in a tight race for the U.S. Senate. That should bring plenty of Republicans to the polls to support down-ballot candidates as well.

On education, Gillum wants to raise teacher salaries, with a minimum starting salary of $50,000, paid for by raising corporate income taxes and legalizing and taxing marijuana,聽. He is skeptical of school choice but said in a recent debate that he wouldn鈥檛 defund charter schools.

DeSantis has called for a mandate that 80 percent of education spending end up in the classroom, as well as a boost in spending for the state鈥檚 tax credit scholarship program.

GEORGIA: Democrat Stacey Abrams, the former House minority leader, against Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp, according to an NBC News/Marist poll released last week. But released Tuesday found Abrams narrowly leading.

Abrams, who would become the nation鈥檚 first black female governor if elected, has joined Texas Senate candidate Beto O鈥橰ourke and fellow gubernatorial nominee Gillum as being among the most buzzed-about Democratic newcomers this cycle. The national spotlight appears to have benefited her campaign, millions of dollars both inside and outside the state.

Still, any Democrat would face an uphill battle in Georgia, which last elected a Democratic governor in 1998. Recently, the race has gained even more national headlines amid allegations that Kemp 鈥� Georgia鈥檚 top election official 鈥� has purged thousands of disproportionately black voters from the rolls in the months leading up to the election.

The candidates have both offered big-ticket education items that might be difficult to enact: Kemp has proposed a permanent, $5,000 raise in teacher salaries, while Abrams would allocate roughly $300 million for childcare subsidies to needy families. Both have also clashed on Georgia鈥檚 tax credit scholarship plan, which Abrams has dismissed as a 鈥渂ackdoor voucher program.鈥�

Independents shake up races

MAINE: finds Democrat Janet Mills ahead of her GOP challenger, Shawn Moody, by eight and a half points as they vie to replace Republican Gov. Paul LePage.

The contours of the race changed Monday, when independent Alan Caron dropped out of the race, throwing his support to Mills. Caron didn鈥檛 have much support in the poll, just over 2 percent. Another independent, Terry Hayes, remains in the race, and 9.5 percent of voters were undecided.

On education issues, both Mills and Moody back raising teacher pay, with a minimum salary of $40,000. Both say the state鈥檚 school finance system needs a cleanup. Mills said she鈥檇 work to meet a voter-imposed mandate that the state fund 55 percent of K-12 education costs. Moody suggested looking at duplicative school programs and administrative costs,聽.

Mills has also said she wouldn鈥檛 lift the state鈥檚 current 10-charter cap and that she doesn鈥檛 back a currently stalled A-F school grading system. Moody supports lifting the cap and is a 鈥渕aybe鈥� on the school rating system, the Press Herald reported.

ALASKA: The race in Alaska, like Maine, was scrambled in mid-October when incumbent Gov. Bill Walker, an independent, dropped out of the race. Walker threw his support behind Mark Begich, the Democratic candidate and a former U.S. senator.

Walker鈥檚 name will still appear on the ballot.聽, conducted Oct. 19-22, finds Republican Mike Dunleavy, a former state senator, ahead of Begich by 4.6 points. (Importantly, Walker hadn鈥檛 dropped out of the race when pollsters began calling voters; they were asked about the race given the likelihood that he鈥檇 throw his support to Begich, but it wasn鈥檛 yet official.)

After years of state coffers flush from robust taxes on oil production, the price of oil has dropped in recent years, forcing belt-tightening in Alaska and聽. Walker and Begich also聽 in a recent debate.

Out West, Democrats look to hold their ground

COLORADO: In the western part of the country, where Democrats have long held substantial electoral power, they鈥檙e looking to maintain their control of key offices. Colorado has become an exemplar of center-left education reform over the past few decades, embracing charter schools and overhauling teacher evaluations without turning to private school vouchers or anti-union measures. Rep. Jared Polis is favored to become the state鈥檚 third consecutive Democratic governor in his race against Republican Walker Stapleton.

鈥淣othing I鈥檝e seen suggests his lead is really in danger,鈥� said Seth Masket, a political science professor at the University of Denver.

础听, conducted in mid-October, found Polis ahead by 12 points. That鈥檚 in keeping with聽 that found Polis ahead by anywhere between 7 and 11 percentage points. Unlike some other polls, where women are skewing heavily Democratic, the UC Boulder poll doesn鈥檛 show a big gender gap.

Though Trump has loomed over many other races, the Colorado governor鈥檚 race has focused on local issues, including transportation, water issues, and education funding, Masket said.

Polis鈥檚 education bona fides could help keep that center-left ed reform streak alive. He founded a charter school and backs many education reforms, and he defeated a union-backed candidate in the Democratic primary. In the campaign, he has called for funding universal pre-K and full-day kindergarten and changes to the state鈥檚 school funding formula. calls for cutting administrative spending and creating tax-free accounts for parents to save for educational expenses.

Polis will have particular latitude over the education agenda if Democrats can regain control over the state Senate, currently held by Republicans with just a two-seat majority. Some Colorado education observers have said that divided government has forced the parties to pursue a moderate course, and that unified Democratic control could mean an end to the d茅tente around charter-district cooperation.

CALIFORNIA:聽Marshall Tuck, who narrowly lost his bid for state superintendent in 2014, is running 12 points ahead of competitor Anthony Thurmond,聽. Tuck is a former charter school leader who has gotten financial backing from big donors in the education reform camp, while Thurmond has the support of unions and has said a pause on new charters might be needed.

Both Tuck and Thurmond are Democrats; California’s primary system elevates the top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation. The race, one of the most expensive in the country for any office, showcases the crack that has emerged among California Democrats on education policy, particularly charters. That same split was evident in the primary for the governor’s race, when union-backed Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom beat reform-aligned Antonio Villaraigosa, the former mayor of Los Angeles. (Read our complete breakdown of the Thurmond-Tuck race)

OREGON: Democratic incumbent Kate Brown is in an聽 for re-election, given the liberal bent of her state. , released Tuesday, gave her a 5-point lead, though surveys since the summer have聽, from giving her as much as a 10-point lead to showing her opponent, Republican Knute Buehler, ahead by 1 point.

The state鈥檚 pension system, including retirement for teachers, has become a top issue as costs spiral for school districts and local governments,聽. Buehler has listed specific changes he鈥檇 make and vowed not to sign any legislation until lawmakers address the pension crisis. Brown has defended her record and backed a small employee cost-sharing proposal earlier this year.

Keeping tabs on New England

CONNECTICUT: Former National Teacher of the Year Jahana Hayes, the most prominent of a wave of educators running for office this fall, looks poised for victory in the race for Connecticut鈥檚 5th Congressional District. A gifted candidate who defeated a vastly more experienced competitor in the Democratic primary, Hayes has attracted support from party luminaries like U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy and .

Known locally as the Fightin鈥� Fifth, the district is considered somewhat competitive territory in cycles when Republicans are favored 鈥� but that鈥檚 not 2018. A from Sacred Heart University found that nearly 49 percent of Connecticut鈥檚 likely voters plan to support their Democratic congressional candidate, compared with just 34 percent who intend to support Republicans.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: In New Hampshire, incumbent Republican Gov. Chris Sununu 鈥� the latest scion of New England鈥檚 quietest political dynasty 鈥� has led Democrat Molly Kelly in the polls for months, though his lead seems to be narrowing as Election Day nears. And although he鈥檚 still favored for re-election, Sununu鈥檚 agenda may be hamstrung: Both Houses of the state legislature could flip from Republican to Democratic control, according to .

The GOP currently holds a four-seat majority in the state Senate and a whopping 44-seat edge in the House, but New Hampshire has seen some of the wildest swings between party control in recent years, and disapproval of Trump is running high in the region.

Consequently, New Hampshire could be the rare state that flips from unified Republican control to unified Democratic control, depending on whether Kelly finishes strong. That could fundamentally alter the trajectory of school choice in the state, as the governor has given his backing to an education savings account initiative that has stalled in the legislature. Kelly is , while Sununu says he鈥檒l give it another go if he wins a second term.

With Democrats and Republicans both ready to make their voices heard, one thing is certain: Voters throughout the nation will swamp the polls next week in numbers that have seldom been seen in a midterm election.

University of Florida professor Michael McDonald, who keeps of U.S. election information, that he believes turnout could reach 50 percent of all eligible voters this year. That may sound unimpressive, especially in a news environment so saturated with election coverage, but it would be the highest rate in over 50 years.

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