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This year鈥檚 startling , followed by last year鈥檚 , has some experts asking: Did something go wrong with the test itself?

There is no clear evidence there is a problem, experts emphasize, but the unusually wide swing in scores warrants careful investigation, multiple testing experts told Chalkbeat this week.

鈥淢y instinctive reaction is there may have been an issue last year that we missed,鈥� said Marianne Perie, who consults with states on testing. 鈥淭his kind of big increase followed by a big decrease is surprising.鈥�

Perie co-chairs New York state鈥檚 technical advisory committee, a panel of experts paid by the state to oversee the testing process. She spoke to Chalkbeat about the trends in her personal capacity, she said. The committee is set to meet next month to review the results in detail and seek to better understand what might explain the changes, Perie said.

Half of New York City students on last year鈥檚 tests, down 6 percentage points from the year before, according to preliminary results released last week. The share of third, fourth, and fifth graders who met grade-level standards in both New York City and state.

The sharp test score swings in those grades immediately sparked theories about what could explain them. Some educators and families if the was a factor. Others pointed to a literacy shakeup in New York City that has been .

Last week, EdTrust-New York, a nonprofit advocacy group, called for an independent audit of the state鈥檚 reading tests. Officials 鈥渘ever adequately investigated or explained last year鈥檚 dramatic gains, making this year鈥檚 reversal difficult to interpret,鈥� the group said in a .

JP O鈥橦are, a spokesperson for the New York State Education Department, said the agency 鈥渢akes this decline seriously and will conduct a detailed analysis to better understand where students are experiencing challenges.鈥�

Simona Beattie, a spokesperson for NWEA, the state鈥檚 testing vendor, said in a statement, 鈥淎t this stage, we have not found any anomalies through our standard due diligence process, which includes corroborating results with an external third party.鈥�

鈥淕iven this, we have high confidence in the accuracy of the results,鈥� Beattie added.

In New York City, the share of third graders scoring proficiently on the reading test fell by 14 percentage points, after rising by 13 points the year before. There were also substantial shifts in fourth and fifth grade scores on the test in both the city and state. Seventh and eighth grade reading scores essentially held steady. Math scores ticked up across the state but were flat in New York City.

Schools Chancellor Kamar Samuels said in a statement that the scores merit 鈥渞igorous analysis so we can ensure we鈥檙e measuring what students are learning.鈥�

The fluctuations in elementary reading scores were quite unusual and surprising, said Benjamin Shear, a testing expert at the University of Colorado Boulder. 鈥淚t requires further scrutiny, questioning, and digging.鈥�

What鈥檚 behind the reading score drop? Experts weigh different theories

City officials and after last year鈥檚 dramatic surge in elementary reading scores, arguing that the was paying off.

Now, the teachers union is pointing to the declines as evidence of problems with the city鈥檚 curriculum mandate and . But that does not explain the broad test score declines across the state, including districts that have not made similar curriculum changes.

In general, testing experts, known as psychometricians, say that a number of theories are worth considering to explain large shifts in scores: changes in student demographics, , , and .

Figures released by the city indicate there were no major changes in the number of test-takers in early grades. The share of city students considered low-income in elementary grades also held fairly steady. And while the state finished its transition in the spring to computer-based testing, that wouldn鈥檛 explain swings in fifth grade, where digital assessments have been .

EdTrust-New York noted that in contrast to state scores, there was steady progress on New York City schools administer at least three times a year.

Emily Oster, a Brown University education economist who has test scores across the country, published a this week questioning the plausibility of New York鈥檚 score changes. She suggested that there may have been a technical error in comparing the results year to year.

In an email to Chalkbeat, Oster acknowledged there is no definitive proof for this. But, she said, the reported results are 鈥渘ot consistent with nearly everything else we know about student learning.鈥� She noted that fourth graders鈥� reading scores had jumped last year, but that same group of students, now fifth graders, have seen scores fall back this year.

Asked about Oster鈥檚 post, O鈥橦are from New York鈥檚 education department said: 鈥淪peculation is not a substitute for data 鈥� Our ongoing review of the preliminary data has not identified any of the issues she outlines in her conjecture.鈥�

An over 200-page documented the process to ensure the accuracy of the 2025 results.

Scott Marion, a testing expert with the Center for Assessment, said he鈥檚 naturally suspicious of a large change in scores that doesn鈥檛 persist the following year. To him, it鈥檚 implausible that the rise and fall of scores represents real differences in achievement or teaching practices.

鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 make sense to me,鈥� he said.

Marion says that perhaps more questions should have been raised about the sharp score increase last year. In his experience, education officials are eager to have testing experts investigate unusual declines, but not unusual increases.

Andrew Ho, a Harvard professor who serves on New York鈥檚 technical advisory committee, said he believes the shifts probably point to real changes in student learning, even if the actual swings aren鈥檛 as extreme as the exams suggest.

鈥淲e should absolutely look at the test, but we should absolutely also look at what the test is likely revealing,鈥� he said.

Chalkbeat is a nonprofit news site covering educational change in public schools. This story was originally published by Chalkbeat. Sign up for their newsletters at

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