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As more Americans receive Covid-19 vaccines and schools move to reopen widely, leaders are doing their best to make sure everyone gets the memo: School is happening in-person this fall.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom recently , 鈥淲e must prepare now for full in-person instruction come next school year.鈥�

In New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy said in March he is 鈥溾�� schools across the state to return in-person in the fall, no exceptions. 鈥淲e are expecting Monday through Friday, in-person, every school, every district,鈥� he said.

Good luck with that.

Even as vaccination rates soar and the government authorizes access for adolescents, school districts nationwide are grappling with sometimes widespread suspicion and dissatisfaction over how they handled the pandemic, especially in communities of color. That鈥檚 forcing them to offer families an option that might have been unthinkable a year ago 鈥� and one that has a terrible track record: enrolling their children online this fall and continuing learning from home.

Dawn Williams, whose daughter will start first grade in August in Maryland鈥檚 Prince George鈥檚 County, said she鈥檚 seriously considering an online program. 鈥淢ost of my friends that have children, their kids are still virtual,鈥� she said.

So far it鈥檚 happening in just a fraction of the nation鈥檚 13,500 districts. But those include a wide mix of rural and suburban districts, as well as large urban school systems like Albuquerque, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Dallas, Indianapolis, Nashville, Omaha, Richmond, and the District of Columbia, according to the University of Washington鈥檚 Center for the Reinvention of Public Education (CRPE).

In Colorado鈥檚 Jefferson County, the school district, responding to 鈥渉igh demand鈥� from families, an online option in the fall. District spokesperson Cameron Bell said more than 700 students have enrolled so far, with at least 1,000 expected by August.

In Montgomery County, the largest school district in Maryland, officials are developing a virtual academy 鈥渢o address both the students who may want to remain virtual for health reasons but also those who have thrived in virtual learning,鈥� said spokesperson Gboyinde Onijala.

What鈥檚 going on here?

Much of this can be chalked up to simple consumer demand. One recent found that nearly 30 percent of parents would rely on virtual learning 鈥渋ndefinitely鈥� going forward. That suggests a potential market of more than 15 million students.

Districts are listening. When RAND researchers surveyed about 320 public school leaders last October, they found that were either considering or actually planning to keep 鈥渙ne or more virtual schools鈥� operating after the pandemic ends, said RAND鈥檚 Heather Schwartz.

鈥淚 expect that to hold, or even to increase somewhat based on early anecdotal indications that a sizable minority of students and parents prefer remote learning,鈥� Schwartz said via email.

More recently, in early April, researchers at CRPE surveyed officials in 100 large urban school districts and found nearly identical results: 23, or just over one in five, plan to offer a remote option next fall.

District leaders told Schwartz and other researchers that their main motivation was 鈥渢o be responsive to parent and student preferences鈥� 鈥� and in no small part to improve sagging enrollments. of 33 states by The Associated Press and the education news site Chalkbeat found that public K-12 enrollment in 2020 dropped by more than half a million students, or 2 percent.

鈥淵ou keep hearing this word: 鈥榯hriving鈥欌��

As he talks these days to school leaders nationwide, education consultant John Bailey said he hears many of them say they plan to make online learning 鈥渁 more permanent part of their offering to kids going forward.鈥� A one-time U.S. Department of Education official who now advises the Walton Family Foundation, Bailey has supported the idea that reopening schools is safe. He said that while many educators acknowledge millions of students lost ground via distance learning, 鈥渇or some kids, it鈥檚 working really well. So why not offer that going forward?鈥�

Nationwide, families of color are keeping their children home at especially high rates. In Chicago, the district鈥檚 chief of school management told school board members late last month that most students are 鈥渓earning virtually.鈥� But about one in four Black high school students was absent from both in-person and remote learning in late April. Overall, only about two-thirds of high school students attended in-person classes on days they were expected in school, the Chicago Sun-Times .

At the same time, Asian fourth-graders attend school remotely at the of any group 鈥� 95 percent, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. Eighth-graders attend at an even higher rate: 96 percent. Asian families have expressed fears about their children experiencing anti-Asian discrimination or even violence in the wake of the pandemic.

While state and local restrictions can play a part in attendance statistics like these, many families are simply voting with their feet, said Bree Dusseault, a practitioner in residence at CRPE.

鈥淭here鈥檚 still a really sizable population of students who, even when given the option to be in-person, aren鈥檛 taking it,鈥� she said.

鈥淵ou keep hearing this word: 鈥榯hriving鈥� 鈥� particularly in families of color,鈥� said Annette Anderson, deputy director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Safe and Healthy Schools in Baltimore. 鈥淒istricts have never had to wrestle with 鈥楬ow do we provide education in multiple formats?鈥� They thought this was a stopgap. Now what I think they鈥檙e finding is that there are many parents that were just fine with virtual learning.鈥�

Anderson, a Black educator who is also a mother of three teens, said the past year has taught parents 鈥渢hat they have a voice at the table 鈥� and they are not being shy and retiring about letting people know what they want in terms of how they want their children to learn.鈥�

Recent survey data suggest that Black, Hispanic and Asian parents are more likely than their white peers to say they prefer online learning. For instance, the journal recently noted data from early April that showed 60 percent of white parents have a preference for in-person learning, compared to just 25 percent of Black and Hispanic parents.

At the same time, Dusseault said, many parents of color see how badly education systems have served their kids in the past, with substandard instruction and .

When Anderson surveyed her three children recently, none wanted to go back to their Baltimore school this fall. They like learning from home and have been successful.

鈥淚 think my kids sometimes miss their friends,鈥� she said. 鈥淏ut aside from that, I don鈥檛 have any of my three children saying right now, 鈥楳om, I want to go back to school today or tomorrow.鈥� They have adapted to this.鈥�

Anderson was quick to add that her kids 鈥渉ave every kind of technology possible,鈥� as well as space at home to use it. All three have their own rooms, plus their home has a backyard. But whatever their situations, she said, 鈥淭here are a lot of kids who are at home and they鈥檙e thriving. You can鈥檛 negate the success of those students and the opportunity that they have had to be separated from their peers and still do well academically.鈥�

Williams, mother of the Maryland first-grader, said her daughter is already doing advanced work 鈥� and she鈥檇 like to keep it that way. Giving her child a chance to work virtually and independently is key.

鈥淪tudents that are more advanced 鈥� and parents that have the choice 鈥� we鈥檙e going to keep our kids home,鈥� she said. 鈥淭hose kids are going to accelerate. They’re going to soar and they鈥檙e going to keep advancing.鈥�

鈥淪chool hesitancy鈥� and safety

Vladimir Kogan, an Ohio State University political scientist who studies politics and public policy, said 鈥渟chool hesitancy鈥� may in part be a function of the messages families hear 鈥� especially in places where teachers鈥� unions loudly demonstrated last year, enacting and the like to warn of the dangers of reopening schools.

鈥淚 think that messaging has definitely filtered down to the parents,鈥� he said.

But has shown that when prevention strategies are in place in schools, transmission of the virus is typically lower than, or similar to, levels of community transmission, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

As a result, public opinion is shifting. A February Pew found that 61 percent of Americans said K-12 schools that weren鈥檛 open for in-person instruction 鈥渟hould give a lot of consideration to the possibility that students will fall behind academically.鈥� That鈥檚 up from 48 percent last July. And fewer Americans said schools should give a lot of consideration to the risk to teachers or students.

鈥淚 think the number of parents who are hesitant is going to go down pretty substantially,鈥� Kogan said. 鈥淏ut I don’t think it’s going to go down to zero.鈥�

Bailey, who recently summarizing research on safe school re-openings amid Covid fears, predicted that there will be a group of parents 鈥渨ho will probably never feel that it鈥檚 safe until there鈥檚 a vaccine for kids.鈥�

The prognosis on vaccines seems promising: This week, both the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention approved expanded use of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for children 12 to 15 years old. Pfizer also said it鈥檒l ask the FDA for emergency authorization in September to administer its vaccine to children as young as 2 years old.

Both Johnson & Johnson and Moderna are conducting trials in children.The U.S. vaccine developer Novavax is also on children 鈥� its vaccine has a reported 96 percent efficacy rate in adults and is awaiting emergency use authorization in the U.S.

A 鈥渞eally terrible鈥� track record for virtual schools

Kogan, the political scientist, worries that by relying on virtual schools, districts are embracing a well-studied 鈥� and failed 鈥� reform.

In a 2019 , researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder鈥檚 National Education Policy Center found that graduation rates at virtual and blended-learning schools were far lower than the national average for public schools. The review followed years of from researchers nationwide.

In 2016, the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools, along with other groups, issued 鈥淎 Call to Action鈥� to , saying far too many virtual schools 鈥渉ave experienced notable problems.鈥�

At the student level, most of the dilemma lies in what鈥檚 required for students to be successful in virtual settings: huge amounts of self-control, motivation and discipline, said Kogan, who last January that found worse declines in reading achievement among Ohio third-graders in districts that used fully remote instruction.

The track record of these programs 鈥渨as terrible before Covid,鈥� Kogan said. 鈥淎nd I think it鈥檚 certainly the case that there are kids who do fine. But the districts are not saying, 鈥榃e鈥檙e going to limit it only to kids who do fine.鈥欌��

To be fair, many educators get it. In its announcement of a 鈥渕odified digital learning option,鈥� the , district last month offered an official warning: 鈥淒igital learning is not optimal for every student. Some students did not do as well academically, socially, or emotionally in the digital learning environment.鈥�

In the long term, Kogan said, his larger worry is that this could open the door to a two-tier education system: a bigger, functional one for students whose parents are comfortable sending them to school, and a smaller, inferior one 鈥渇or kids whose parents are too scared and keep them home.鈥�

The long-term damage, he said, 鈥渋s going to be so devastating. It鈥檚 going to exacerbate all the inequalities that we already have.鈥�

Anderson, the Baltimore educator and mother, acknowledged the dilemma, but emphasized it was nothing new: Millions of kids weren鈥檛 being served well before the pandemic. Here鈥檚 a chance for something better, especially for students of color who are already staying away in large numbers.

While leaders may insist that everyone attend in-person on the first day of school this fall, Anderson said, 鈥淚鈥檓 not hearing what is going to significantly shift over the summer that is going to make sure that these large numbers of families of color are going to suddenly show up in September.鈥�

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