鈥淲hen the economy is doing well, our enrollments are down, and when the economy is in a tough stretch or in a recession, we see our enrollments go up,鈥� said Chris Ferguson, an executive vice chancellor with the California Community Colleges Chancellor鈥檚 Office, which oversees all of the state鈥檚 116 community colleges. 

Ferguson said the state has yet to release authoritative data on fall enrollment, but early data shows upward trends. In interviews with CalMatters, some college presidents said they鈥檙e seeing over 10% more students compared to last fall. But they say the state hasn鈥檛 provided enough funding to keep up with their growth. 

California is not in a recession, but some economic indicators are grim. , and it鈥檚 getting . The cost of consumer goods, such as toilet paper and cosmetics, is , and economists say tariffs and President Donald Trump鈥檚 increased deportations could lead to further . 

鈥淭ypically when the economy gets a little crazy, like it is right now, people need to upskill or find new work,鈥� and workers look to colleges for help, said Nicole Albo-Lopez, deputy chancellor for the Los Angeles Community College District. In the Los Angeles district, students between the ages of 35 and 54 are coming back to school in droves 鈥� up 28% compared to last year, she said. 

Other factors may also be bringing students back to school. The COVID-19 pandemic created a in college enrollment, and some schools say the influx of students this year is just a return to pre-pandemic levels. A large portion of recent enrollment growth comes from high school students taking college courses, which has in the past few years. 

But most college officials agree that uncertainty about the economy is at least one of the driving forces for new students this semester. 

At the Los Rios Community College District, which represents four campuses in the Sacramento metro area, enrollment is up by more than 5% compared to last fall. Part of that is due to 鈥渢he gap between Wall Street and Main Street,鈥� said Mario Rodriguez, an executive vice chancellor for the system: The stock market has performed well in the past few years, even as job seekers see fewer opportunities and families struggle with inflation. Enrollments in career technical classes are up 10% this semester at the district, the equivalent of almost 4,000 new students. 

These job-ready programs, such as medical assisting, welding, and automotive, have always been popular, and some cap enrollment. School officials say waitlists are growing.

Quitting a job, starting school

Carla Gruhn, 29, has worked as a medical assistant in San Jose for 10 years. At one point she was making roughly $50,000 a year, but it wasn鈥檛 enough.

鈥淚n the last year, eggs started becoming super expensive,鈥� she said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 when I started paying more attention to gas and groceries.鈥� Together with her husband, she started planning ways to scale back 鈥� fewer coffee runs, less travel with their truck, cheaper gifts this Christmas. But they needed a long-term solution, too.

In July, she quit her job and enrolled in a two-year radiologic technology program at Foothill College, in the south Bay Area, which will teach her how to read X-rays, CT scans, and MRIs. Her salary will double, maybe even triple, once she graduates with the new credential. 

The pay raise could be 鈥渓ife-changing,鈥� she said. At the moment, Gruhn said her family is small, just her husband and her dog, so their costs are lower, but they know it鈥檚 going to get more expensive, since they want to buy a house and have kids. 鈥淲e’re trying to plan for the future too.鈥�

At Foothill College, enrollment is up, especially in science and technology classes, said Simon Pennington, the school鈥檚 associate vice president of community relations. Many of these students are looking to fulfill prerequisites to enter careers in the health care sector, he added. Health care is one of the in the state, according to a recent report from the Public Policy Institute of California. 

In Merced, hours away from major urban centers like the Bay Area, Sacramento, or Los Angeles, students are clamoring for classes in electronics, where the fall waitlist numbers have nearly doubled compared to three years ago. Demand is also up for classes in criminal justice and mechanized agriculture, according to James Leonard, a spokesperson for the school. 

鈥淲hen the economy goes bad, enrollment skyrockets,鈥� said Dee Sigismond, Merced College鈥檚 vice president of instruction, though she wasn鈥檛 certain that a recession would have the same impact it did 15 years ago. Staring during the pandemic, Merced College, like most community colleges, now offers many of its classes online, which can make it easier for students to juggle school with a full- or part-time job. She added that Merced is also experimenting with new, more flexible kinds of instruction, such as , which allows students to pass a class by showing they already have the requisite skills.

Colleges call for more funding

California鈥檚 community colleges receive most of their funding based on the number of students they serve. When enrollment declined during the pandemic, colleges were set to lose funding, but the governor and the Legislature granted the community college system a special exemption, delaying many funding cuts. 

Now that enrollment is ticking up, many colleges say they have the opposite problem 鈥� they aren鈥檛 getting enough money to serve the influx of new students. That鈥檚 largely because the state鈥檚 funding formula is based on the college鈥檚 average enrollment over the past three years, so sudden changes this year are slow to have an effect. Rodriguez said his Sacramento area district is serving about 5,000 more students than the system is funded to support, representing about $20 million in lost revenue. 

This summer, the state agreed to to California鈥檚 community colleges to account for recent enrollment growth, but Ferguson said it isn鈥檛 enough to fully fund all the new students. 

Last month, presidents and chancellors from 10 different community colleges or community college districts, including representatives from Los Angeles and Sacramento, sent to the governor, asking him to change state policy and allow colleges to get more funding in next year鈥檚 budget. Though he did not sign the letter, Ferguson said the state chancellor鈥檚 office is asking the governor for similar changes. 

In 2008, colleges had to cut back on services or classes, even as new students poured in because the state didn鈥檛 provide proportionate funding for each new enrollment. 

Next year, California is expected to face an $18 billion , according to a November analysis by the Legislative Analyst鈥檚 Office. For comparison, the state had a deficit of about in 2008, worth about $36 billion in today鈥檚 dollars. 

In Chula Vista, Southwestern College President Mark Sanchez said his district is already saying no to potential college classes in high schools and prisons because of a lack of state funding. 

His district had over 32,000 students in the last academic year 鈥� the highest enrollment rate since the Great Recession.

A community ecosystem fuels success

The ecosystems in Midland and Longview are a point of distinction. Both have traditional support from organizations like the local Chamber of Commerce, which typically understand the importance of an educated workforce to help fuel the local business community. Yet in Midland, leaders from business, philanthropy, and education are actively advocating for improvement in their school system.

The, a collection of business and civic leaders and organizations, has become a catalyst in focusing the community on the trajectory of the Midland Independent School District. (Acknowledgement: Former Commerce Secretary, the Chairman of the Permian Strategic Partnership, chairs the board of the George W. Bush Presidential Center.) The PSP website acknowledges that: 鈥淭he public schools in the Permian region compared to other areas of the state.鈥� The site also makes clear that, 鈥淥ur schools the next generation with access to highly qualified teachers and a robust curriculum.鈥�

As happened in Dallas a decade ago, when leaders concerned about the city鈥檚 schools pushed for improvements, Midland鈥檚 education reformers are using outcome data broken apart by race, ethnicity, gender, socio-economic status and special education status to better understand where the school system is working for kids 鈥� and where it is not 鈥� to help identify solutions.

As one example, the reformers invited in the Partnership, the Dallas-based collective impact organization, to help the community better understand the depth of Midland鈥檚 educational shortcomings. 鈥淒ata is a tool, not a weapon,鈥� said Midland civic leader Ronnie Scott in emphasizing the need for quality data.

Civic leaders also researched regions that exhibited educational progress, including how they use charter schools to improve student achievement. Midland ISD trustees have taken advantage of a Texas law that allows charter operators to take over failing campuses.

For its part, Midland College is working to bolster the local K-12 system. Midland鈥檚 successful Early College High School, which earned an A on the state鈥檚 2021-2022 rankings, sits on the Midland College campus. Also, the community college now offers a four-year degree .

Scott cites the latter move as key to Midland preparing more of its own teachers. Attracting talent to communities far away from Texas鈥� metropolitan areas is hard. But members of Midland鈥檚 active ecosystem contributed about $30 million in private funds to create this initiative.

Community volunteers like Christine Foreman are playing a key role, too. Raised in Midland, Foreman noticed Midland鈥檚 public schools had hit rock bottom several years ago. She took action by leading Midland ISD鈥檚 2019 bond package, which Scott, a business executive, helped craft and supported publicly.

The election drew an impressive turnout of about 23,000 voters, but . Midland鈥檚 staunch anti-tax culture contributed to the defeat, as did an insufficient number of young people turning out to approve the package.

Mobilizing enough voters in a staunchly anti-tax city to support another new bond package is a tall but important task. A city that rightly prides itself on freedom and opportunity should appreciate how much quality public schools can expand the important guiding values of the community.

Most important, Midland鈥檚 business, civic and education leaders must keep playing the role of truth-tellers. The city once had a strong set of public schools. Now, it must rebuild them. That鈥檚 not an easy message to deliver, much less hear.

Longview leaders could learn from Midland鈥檚 example. Longview ISD has a commanding leader in James Wilcox, the district鈥檚 superintendent since 2007. Through his leadership, Longview took advantage of the same state law that Midland has used to create charter schools. Except in Longview鈥檚 case, Wilcox turned the state law, , inside out to make every one of Longview鈥檚 schools into a charter campus.

What the district needs now is a broad ecosystem, one that involves a range of organizations, leaders, and citizens in the conversation about Longview ISD鈥檚 path. Wilcox has set the vision, but widespread engagement will allow the district to build upon its progress over time 鈥� and ensure an eventual successful transition when Wilcox decides to retire.

A broad ecosystem also would help the entire 82,000-person city navigate through the maze of three school districts that serve Longview. Competitive tensions inevitably mount. A network of civic and business organizations could ensure the competition benefits the entire community.

And, as in Midland, Longview business, civic and education leaders must play the role of truth-tellers. In Longview鈥檚 case, the most recent A grade it received from the Texas Education Agency is a triumph. But it doesn鈥檛 mean that all students are having an A experience in terms of quality instruction and academic progress. The A campuses in Longview provide great opportunities to learn what interventions and approaches may better support students on lower-ranking campuses.

An innovative use of government programs

Wilcox has made International Baccalaureate curriculum and the development of Montessori schools a priority for Longview ISD. Research supports those approaches as strategies to stimulate early learning and prepare students for an education beyond high school.

The longtime superintendent is making his priority a reality through an unusual use of SB 1882. The law uses incentives to encourage districts to partner with nonprofit charters to turnaround struggling campuses. In return, the districts receive an increase in state funding for that campus.

Through Wilcox鈥檚 opportunistic use of SB 1882, all Longview ISD schools are now charter campuses. At the same time, the district is using the money from the law to finance the expansion of IB or Montessori programs, including training teachers in these models. (Not all Longview schools have one of those programs, but efforts are underway to spread them district-wide. Teachers are not currently required to be certified in IB or Montessori to be hired by the district.)

Although the three charter organizations operating in Longview have their own boards, Longview ISD essentially runs the schools since it employs the teachers and administrators in each charter. Autonomy is at the heart of charter schools, particularly autonomy around hiring, salaries, use of instructional time and curriculum. Autonomy in Longview is somewhat murky at present, particularly given the governance structure and the fact that teachers and principals are employees of the district, not the charters. Next year, when the charters come up for review, the district should run a competition to select the best charter operators, including being open to charter management operators who insist upon employing their own educators and administrators.

For its part, Midland is focused on strengthening early childhood education, teacher development, career and technical education, and long-range facility planning. Midland also has tapped into the innovations that external charter operators like and use to improve student learning.

Third Future Schools, launched by former Dallas ISD Superintendent Mike Miles, redesigned once-failing Sam Houston Collegiate Preparatory Elementary with innovations like paying higher salaries based upon a teacher鈥檚 classroom performance, assigning apprentice teachers to nurture young educators, and using a curriculum that includes a concentration in the art of thinking. Sam Houston went from a F rating in 2018-2019 to a from the Texas Education Agency for the 2021-2022 school year.

In 2020, Public Schools opened the first , thanks to local foundations and leaders $55 million to fund the expansion of charters in Midland and Odessa. IDEA took over Travis Elementary School, a campus that the state gave a F grade in 2019. By contrast, TEA in 2022.

To its credit, IDEA focuses on the fundamentals of quality classroom instruction and developing effective teachers. The charter management organization notably offers a housing benefit to prospective teachers as part of its goal of developing a local pipeline of quality instructors.

As IDEA has shown with its progress in Midland, innovation need not be new. It may mean something as old-fashioned as strong instruction and a strong, welcoming culture for students.

Whether through a charter school or a traditional campus, Midland ISD will help prepare students for the world that awaits them by remaining open to innovative educational strategies.

Clear and inspired governance is key

The biggest governance challenge for Longview ISD is simplifying its unique but overlapping set of school boards. The district鈥檚 three charter operators have their own set of directors. But the charter operators eventually answer to Longview ISD鈥檚 school trustees and superintendent. Who, then, really is in charge?

Simplifying lines of authority would ensure the charters are not like a cautious driver looking back over their shoulder for approval from passengers in the backseat. Timidity leads to trouble, even danger. Longview students would be better served if the district remained the authorizing agent, while letting the charters manage their own work.

Giving quality charters freedom to operate, whether through rearranging school days, experimenting with curriculum, and using their own hiring and salary practices, has worked around the country. , Public Schools, and Public Schools provide three good examples.

The most important decision facing the Midland school board is hiring a superintendent to replace Angelica Ramsey, who decided in September to become Fort Worth ISD鈥檚 leader. She was hired to stabilize and advance the district after it had churned through two leaders without much progress. Ramsey was headed in the right direction by working closely with the Midland community, building the leadership capacity of principals and assistant principals, and staying on top of district data. The board would be smart to find someone with similar visionary instincts.

Midland voters elected 3 last month. The board has made strides toward concentrating on the most important variable: student performance. In fact, Scott and others credit trustees for being intent on improving the district, focusing on such priorities as attracting talented instructors to West Texas.

Trustees also have participated in Lone Star Governance, a Texas Education Agency spinoff that focuses on effective governance. But, as in other districts, board members need to know what to do with poor results and to stay the course once they find an evidenced-backed pathway. Parochial or minor matters can dominate school board鈥檚 discussions in any district 鈥� it is easy for board agendas to be filled with matters that have the gloss of relevance but lack any substantive impact on students.

Recommendations for Texas and lessons for beyond

As we saw in our look at Texas鈥� big metros as well as this look at our state鈥檚 smaller cities, adult leadership matters everywhere. Smaller cities and towns are, by definition, smaller ponds. Big fish can have outsized impact, to the good or the bad. Civic engagement and service is critical in small towns, particularly for those who want their hometowns to keep their homegrown talent.

Schools that prepare young people well for real local opportunity is a strong strategy for any Texas town. We recommend that leaders in smaller cities consider these recommendations when working to improve outcomes for all young people in their towns.

Show up and engage. In a smaller city, engagement by adults really matters. Citizens need to understand the outcome data and the community context, contribute to solutions with their time and treasure and vote in school board elections. Midland鈥檚 ecosystem is pushing forward with the priorities identified before their superintendent resigned for another role. The ecosystem in Longview is less well-organized and defined.

Distribute the leadership. Transitions will happen in the central office. In smaller cities, distributing responsibility and information across district leaders ensures that improvements work and a focus on goals continues even when leadership may change

Take advantage of charters and SB 1882. As both districts show, partnering with charters through brought new approaches to struggling campuses 鈥� and generated revenue for the districts. District-charter partnerships provide opportunities for learning and innovation when executed with fidelity. Taking advantage of policies like SB 1882 can help smaller cities access new ideas and resources.

Use the data. There is no way around using student outcome data to measure progress. It is impossible to meaningfully improve outcomes for students without using comparable data to understand who is on track and who is lagging. Tests are not solutions in and of themselves. They are simply the tool that helps illustrate academic progress. Breaking apart that data to understand what is happening on each campus and within each subgroup of students is also important to know if all students in the district are having comparable experiences.

The Texas miracle of economic growth and opportunity is both tantalizing and sobering. Texas is the fastest-growing state in the union per the 2020 Census. People of color account for 95% of that population growth, and we need everyone in the state to have opportunity within reach for our state to thrive. We know that the progress made by Texas students through the 1990s and 2000s stalled before the pandemic 鈥� and that stall became a major crash for far too many young people thrown off track by COVID-19 disruptions to school and home.

Recovery for today鈥檚 students is not a lost cause. Texas can still cultivate and benefit from the collective ingenuity, knowledge, and leadership of our young people if adults stay the course to build and support school systems that work for all students. Adult leadership and vision matter now, more than ever.

Towering metropolitan populations dominate the storyline of modern Texas. The 13 largest cities in the United States include five from Texas: Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin and Fort Worth. The Texas Triangle, a megaregion in the middle of the state that includes those five main urban centers, is home to nearly 21 million of the state鈥檚 28.6 million residents. The rest of the state鈥檚 7.5 million residents 鈥� still greater than the population of 30 smaller states 鈥� live in rural areas, small towns and moderately sized cities.

The foundation of the state 鈥� and often its mythic image 鈥� rests in the vast stretches of land far from the office towers of Texas鈥� urban and suburban skylines. No regions of the state capture more of that heritage than West Texas and East Texas. They provided the oil, cattle, timber and cotton that allowed a frontier state to eventually develop an economy that would rank ninth in the world if Texas were a nation.

We chose Midland and Longview, two longstanding Texas communities that help anchor West and East Texas, respectively, for a closer look at opportunity in Texas beyond the state鈥檚 urban core. Both cities sit in growing counties in our fast-growing state, according to the 2020 Census. (Midland County grew over 24% over the last decade, Gregg County grew a more modest 2%.) They are also blessed with young people. Will those young people stay in their cities? Will they be well prepared for opportunities?

Midland sits 325 miles west from Dallas/Fort Worth in the center of the oil-rich Permian Basin. The city鈥檚 thriving energy industry long has attracted pioneering entrepreneurs and educated professionals to its windswept plains. None have been more prominent than a young George H.W. Bush, and his wife Barbara Bush, who arrived after World War II in search of opportunity.

Midland continues to attract college-educated engineers, geologists and executives, at least more so than neighboring Odessa. Yet the boom-and-bust cycles that roil the energy industry require Permian Basin residents to retool themselves 鈥� or become unemployed 鈥� when downturns hit.

Longview became an industrial hub in the Piney Woods of Texas after long-ago becoming a center for shipping cotton and timber. The East Texas town also capitalized on the discovery of the nearby East Texas Oil Field in the 1930s. Fortunes were made from that field, benefitting towns and families across East Texas.

Today, Longview houses a number of manufacturing operations, but only about 22% of the town鈥檚 population has a . By contrast, the state average for a bachelor鈥檚 degree or higher is almost 31%.

These communities face the same question that big cities like Dallas, Houston and Austin encounter with their school districts: How do they best prepare students for a meaningful life in the modern workforce?

Towns like Midland, with its 176,000 people, and Longview, with its 82,000 people, need to grow their own talent to become their communities鈥� next teachers, doctors and entrepreneurs. Big cities have more people moving in, but the futures of Midland and Longview are tied to how well they can prepare their young people for opportunities in adulthood.

This urban-rural dynamic plays itself out across America, no matter a state鈥檚 size. As people flock to cities, what happens to the communities they leave behind? What happens to their workers, their families, their children? What becomes of their institutions, not the least of which are their schools? Look at any state in the union, and this story applies.

What data says about Midland ISD and Longview ISD

As the energy capital of the Permian Basin, Midland is a major force in world energy markets. As of June 2022, the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank , the Permian Basin produced almost 44% of the nation鈥檚 oil and about 17% of its natural gas.

The production is vital to the economies of Midland and the nation. Yet the roller coaster nature of the energy industry means that Midland鈥檚 schools must continually produce innovative students who can help their community adapt to financial booms-and-busts.

Young families once knew they could place their children in a Midland public school and their education would ready them for the world. In the ensuing decades, the community continued to provide a decent education at a below-average cost.

Now, student performance in the Midland Independent School District shows something different.

In the 2018-2019 school year, the Texas Education Agency gave in the agency鈥檚 A-F annual rankings of public schools. The earned only mediocre marks for overall student achievement on the State of Texas Assessments of Academic Readiness exams. Its students demonstrated marginal year-over-year progress on the annual tests. And the state ranked twice as many Midland ISD schools as failing compared to the previous year.

Fast forward three years, Midland ISD students improved on the As a whole, the district of 26,387 students moved from a C rating in 2019, the last year TEA handed out letter grades, to a B for the 2021-2022 school year. The progress is encouraging, especially given the pandemic鈥檚 impact on students.

Similarly, Midland ISD educators should celebrate that their students improved in reading in grades three through eight. And across all subgroups of students, whether by race, income or English proficiency, the district met the state鈥檚 target for .

Still, Midland鈥檚 overall B rating sits on the border between a B and a C. The district barely scooted by with a numerical score of 80 out of 100 to claim that B grade. In part, that is because on the state鈥檚 expectations on all STAAR exams, trailing the Texas state average of 48%.

The 鈥渕eets鈥� mark is critical because it means that students are able, as TEA reports, to 鈥済enerally demonstrate the ability to think critically and apply grade-level knowledge and skills in familiar contexts.鈥� In Midland鈥檚 case, 58% of the district鈥檚 students are not showing they can apply their knowledge in a way that is appropriate for their grade level.

Longview ISD is also showing some signs of improvement, but not all of the East Texas district鈥檚 metrics are encouraging. Like Midland ISD, Longview can鈥檛 claim victory.

The big headline is that the district of 8,223 students earned a coveted A from the state for the 2021-2022 academic year. That top mark was up from a B in 2018-2019. Equally encouraging is that Longview students beat the state average on all STAAR exams except for social studies.

Of course, trumping a fairly low state average is not a major victory. It is particularly troubling that only 44% of Longview ISD鈥檚 Black students, who make up 34.5% of the Longview student body, . Their passing rate trails the average passing rate for all Longview ISD students by 10 points.

While it is good that Longview earned an A rating, an A rating may not mean an A experience for all of a district鈥檚 students. And Midland鈥檚 B rating is a positive sign of growth, but it also does not mean a B experience for every student.

As we saw in our study of Dallas, Austin and Houston, strong high school graduation rates do not guarantee future success.

The charts below illustrate the challenge facing young people in Midland County and Gregg County, in which Longview is located. Third-grade reading scores show gaps by race and ethnicity 鈥� gaps that appear to be largely eliminated when we consider high school graduation rates across those same racial groups. Maddeningly, however, those gaps reappear across higher education attainment and wage measures.

A proxy graduate profile shows that many students were well behind on reading in third grade and math in eighth grade, but a high percentage of students graduated from high school. This begs the question, were they truly prepared for opportunity and their next step, or did we set them up to fail by passing them along in the system?

In our next article, we will examine how the governance and leadership of these two mid-size districts impacts student learning, how well the districts use innovations and fundamentals to improve student outcomes, and the degree to which the community ecosystems support and drive school progress. We also will provide recommendations on how Midland ISD and Longview ISD can best deal with the realities they confront.

For now, we conclude with the voices of students who explain their experiences in Midland and Longview. Their voices are the most important ones, after all. Their opportunity to enjoy a meaningful, purposeful life is at stake.