For education research and data, the well caretaker is the National Center for Education Statistics. A father dropping his daughter off at high school or the grandmother watching her grandson get on the school bus has probably never heard of it. If loses staff in government layoffs and stops collecting, analyzing and reporting education data from across the country, will they notice? The school bell still rings. The lights are on. But when the metaphorical drought hits 鈥� when because enrollment drops and less money is coming into the district 鈥� families will be caught off guard. Without trend data, communities will be unprepared for budget cuts or other dramatic changes.  

Just like the city with the well, advocates will lose count of critical metrics, warning systems will fail and families will lose track of how well their schools are performing. From how much states spend on education to college enrollment trends to the outcomes of early childhood education, NCES data is the quiet but essential workhorse behind nearly every debate about school quality, access and student achievement.  

Consider school finance data. Dollars and cents should be easy to measure, right? Can鈥檛 states simply tally what is spent? The reality is that without NCES, that data would be insufficient. Without NCES鈥檚 continued stewardship, states will fall back on a patchwork of inconsistent reporting systems that make spending comparisons impossible. Without the federal mandate 鈥� and NCES’ careful planning, collection and validation 鈥� spending data will likely lack the detail and accuracy needed to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of the billions of federal, state and local dollars spent on schools.  

But even that oversight hasn鈥檛 been enough. It is still difficult to say what is spent on specific classrooms, let alone specific students. Researchers using this data on a regular basis have been calling for better measurement 鈥� not the abandonment of the baseline. 

Incomplete data has real consequences. Without accurate enrollment and demographic information, states and the federal government to serve more students from economically disadvantaged backgrounds. If budget cuts come, and principals and district leaders lack evidence for cost-effectiveness, it will be more difficult to continue allocating scarce resources. State legislators will have less confidence in understanding , such as AI literacy or work-based learning that prepares young people for a rapidly changing economy. And, as a result of these cascading failures, students will miss out on learning opportunities that enable them to achieve their highest potential. 

Most importantly, the loss of school funding data will make it nearly impossible to conduct research on any multi-state education intervention. One of the most critical things researchers consider when structuring studies is the difference in spending between the subjects (states, districts and schools) that they are measuring. Many major national studies of charter school efficacy, for instance, have relied on this data in order to fairly analyze outcomes. There is a possible future in which evaluations of the effects of private school choice will be hampered by a lack of easily available and nationally normed data. This also holds true in conducting well-structured and rigorous studies of non-fiscal initiatives, like high-dosage tutoring.

No agency is perfect. We have both been critics of NCES, noting its slow pace, duplicative collections and outdated systems. The national data infrastructure has not kept up with the speed of technological and policy change. NCES’ are often hard to navigate. But in an era of misinformation and polarization, independent, transparent data is one of the few tools that the organizations focused on education research, advocacy and accountability must all agree on.

Hobbling NCES’ financial data collection now will unwind too much progress. It will create a vacuum that even well-funded researchers, policymakers and practitioners cannot fill. The nation’s advance warning system will be lost. The decades-long debate about whether America spends enough on education will become ever more muddled. Important indicators of school policy will become a guessing game, and students will be the ones who lose.

In other words, the well will go dry before anyone knows it.  

NCES must have the resources to revitalize and fulfill its mission. Despite recent proposals and federal actions, we do not believe that NCES must be eliminated to return power to the states; states already have power. Instead, the federal government should modernize NCES鈥檚 data tools, improve accessibility for the public and strengthen collaboration to reduce reporting burdens on states and districts. Without this standardized financial data, researchers will lose the ability to reliably study the results of any multi-state education reforms or interventions, because it is key to accurately adjusting state-by-state findings.

Since 1996, national organizations like the have helped 48 states create systems for seamless data collection from districts and public charter schools. Of those, 36 include information about school-level expenditures. These systems can be further improved to collect timely, detailed spending data that can be more closely aligned with federal standards while still managed by each state.

States like and are creating new portals that report spending data in a way that makes it easy for the public to understand. Places like are linking education and workforce data closer together. Imagine the power for parents and concerned citizens if NCES鈥� website were strengthened to include similar visuals and opportunities for data exploration. 

State and federal agencies can, directly or through public-private partnerships, create the 21st-century data infrastructure that America’s education and workforce systems need. In an era of personalized learning and career pathways, and increasingly diverse educational providers to serve them, researchers and advocates must embrace and encourage a stronger and more modern NCES, not run away from efforts to examine how dollars are used and whether they are being spent effectively.  

The fight for reliable education data isn鈥檛 just about numbers on a spreadsheet. It鈥檚 the dedication to checking the well to gauge the community’s well-being and creating better systems for measuring the water when technology evolves so this knowledge is never again imperiled. It鈥檚 about whether America is willing to make decisions based on facts rather than hunches, on the value of measurement over the burden of effort.  

Across the country, public school enrollment has failed to rebound to pre-pandemic levels 鈥� and data suggests the decline is far from over.

According to projections from the National Center for Education Statistics, public K-12 enrollment peaked at 50.8 million students in autumn 2019, but is to fall by nearly 4 million students to 46.9 million by 2031, a 7.6% nationwide drop.

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The enrollment losses are in elementary and middle grades, with districts in the Northeast, West and Rust Belt most affected. When public school enrollment fell by 3% in 2020, it was the largest single-year decline World War II.

The NCES 2024 December , which accounts for fall 2023 data, found that 18 states saw public school enrollment declines of more than 4%. Ten states 鈥� California, Colorado, Hawaii, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and West Virginia declined more than 5%.

A new study from Boston University that high-income districts and middle schools in Massachusetts were especially vulnerable, with middle grade enrollment in fall of 2024 down almost 8% and the most significant losses concentrated among white and Asian students.

Public school enrollment in Massachusetts was down 2% from pre-pandemic trends for the fall 2024 school year, while private school enrollment rose 14% and homeschooling surged 45%.

Long-term demographic shifts 鈥� such as falling birth rates, domestic migration and a post-COVID shift toward school choice 鈥� are also a factor in public school enrollment declines. Parents increasingly opt for private, charter or homeschooling models 鈥� options that rapidly during and after the pandemic.

A February Gallup showed that dissatisfaction with the U.S. public education system is rising, with the percentage of adults who report feeling satisfied about public education falling from 37% to 24% between 2017 and 2025.

The National Alliance for Public Charter Schools a net gain of 400,000 students over five years, offsetting some of the 1.8 million student losses from traditional districts.

Public school funding, often tied to enrollment, is also shrinking. According to the Reason Foundation, 98 public schools in 2023-24 across 15 states, with significant losses in California, Colorado, Florida and New York. Districts are facing tough decisions around school consolidations, staffing and infrastructure.

ProPublica reported that shrinking enrollment roughly 150 Chicago schools operating at half-capacity this past school year, with another 47 at one-third capacity.

However, some researchers offer a more nuanced view. A Kennesaw State University researcher that declining enrollment can lead to higher per-student funding. Since districts often retain funding for students who鈥檝e left, those resources can be reallocated to support remaining students, improving staff compensation and access to teachers and other support services.

is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Stateline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Scott S. Greenberger for questions: info@stateline.org.

Congratulations and welcome to a place we once knew well. You face any number of tough challenges on behalf of American students, parents, educators and taxpayers, as well as the administration you serve, but your 鈥淒epartment鈥檚 Final Mission鈥� shows that you鈥檙e well prepared to meet them. We particularly admire your commitment to making American education 鈥渢he greatest in the world.鈥�

But how will we 鈥� and you, and our fellow Americans 鈥� know how rapidly we鈥檙e getting there? By now, you鈥檙e probably aware that the single most important activity of the department you lead is the National Assessment of Educational Progress, known to some as NAEP and to many as the Nation鈥檚 Report Card.

That鈥檚 the primary gauge by which we know how American education is doing, both nationally and in the states to which you rightly seek to restore its control.

Almost four decades ago 鈥� during Ronald Reagan鈥檚 second term 鈥� it was our job to modernize that key barometer of student achievement. Five years after A Nation at Risk told Americans that their education system was far from the world鈥檚 greatest, state leaders 鈥� governors especially 鈥� craved better data on the performance of their students and schools. And they were right. At the time, they had no sure way of monitoring that performance.

That was one of our challenges, back in the day. Advised by a blue-ribbon study group led by outgoing Tennessee governor (and future U.S. senator) Lamar Alexander, and with congressional cooperation spearheaded by the late Ted Kennedy, in 1988 we proposed what became a bipartisan transformation of an occasional government-sponsored test into a regular and systematic appraisal of student achievement in core academic subjects, administered by the National Center for Education Statistics (part of your Institute for Education Sciences) and overseen by an independent group of state and local leaders, plus educators and the general public. (One of your responsibilities is appointing several terrific people each year to terms on the 26-member National Assessment Governing Board.) 

That 1988 overhaul made three big changes:

• Creation of that independent board to ensure the data鈥檚 integrity, accuracy and utility;
  
• Inauguration of state-level reporting of student achievement in grades 4, 8 and 12, i.e. at  the ends of elementary, middle and high school; and
  
• Authorization for the board to set standards 鈥� known as achievement levels 鈥� by which to know whether that achievement is satisfactory.

Much else was happening in U.S. education at the time: School choice was gaining traction. States were setting their own academic standards and administering their own assessments. Graduation requirements were rising as the economy modernized and its human capital needs increased. 

As these and other reforms gathered speed, NAEP became the country鈥檚 most trusted barometer of what was (and wasn鈥檛) working. You alluded to NAEP data during your confirmation hearing. President Donald Trump deploys it when referencing the shortcomings of U.S. schools. For example, his Jan. 29 executive order on school choice began this way: 鈥淎ccording to this year鈥檚 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 70% of 8th graders were below proficient in reading, and 72% were below proficient in math.鈥�

Everybody relies on NAEP data, and its governing board鈥檚 standards have become the criteria by which states gauge whether their own standards are rigorous enough. Just the other day, Gov. Glenn Youngkin鈥檚 board of education used them to benchmark Virginia鈥檚 tougher expectations for students and .

Reading and math were, and remain, at the heart of NAEP, but today it also tests civics, U.S. history, science and other core subjects 鈥� exactly as listed in your speech.

But NAEP is not perfect. It needs another careful modernization. It should make far better use of technology, including artificial intelligence. It should be nimbler and more efficient. The procedures by which its contractors are engaged need overhauling. (The Education Department鈥檚 whole procurement process needs that, too 鈥� faster, more competitive, more efficient, less expensive!)

Yet NAEP also needs to do more. Today, for instance, it gives state leaders their results only in grades 4 and 8, not at the end of high school. It doesn鈥檛 test civics and history nearly often enough, and never in 12^th grade, even though most systematic study of those subjects occurs in high school. (It probably tests fourth- and eighth-grade reading and math too often 鈥� the result of a different federal law.) 

Doing more shouldn鈥檛 cost any more. Within NAEP鈥檚 current budget 鈥� approaching $200 million, a drop in the department鈥檚 murky fiscal ocean 鈥� much more data should be gettable by making new contracts tighter and technology smarter, squeezing more analysis from NAEP鈥檚 vast trove and having staffers put shoulders to the wheel. (Former IES director Mark Schneider has the .)  But making this happen will take strong executive leadership, an agile, hardworking governing board and your own oversight. You may decide it鈥檚 time for another blue-ribbon group to take a close look at NAEP and recommend how to modernize it again without losing its vital ability to monitor changes over time in student achievement.

Yes, this is all sort of wonky. NAEP results get used all the time, but it鈥檚 far down in the bureaucracy and doesn鈥檛 make much noise. Nobody in Congress (as far as we know) pays it much attention. Yet it remains 鈥� we believe 鈥� the single most important activity of your department. Which, frankly, is why it needs your watchful attention! 

We wish you well in your new role. Please let us know if we can help in any way.

Sincerely, 

William J. Bennett, U.S. Secretary of Education (1985-88)

Chester E. Finn Jr., Assistant Secretary for Research & Improvement and Counselor to the Secretary (1985-88) 

In 2018, the Trump administration reorganizing the department out of existence. That effort failed, showing that even under a Republican administration, dissolving the Department of Education is difficult. But it鈥檚 not impossible.

A reform-minded, results-oriented executive could begin by rerouting many of the department’s functions to other agencies rather than abolishing it wholesale. I use years of personal experience in the Department of Education, leading both the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) and its parent Institute of Education Sciences (IES), to show how a conservative president could achieve some first steps 鈥� and why they鈥檙e needed.  

First, and most urgently, the department must answer for its recent FAFSA debacle, which has affected millions of students and their families. The Government Accountability Office has painstakingly documented the myriad failures in how the department managed the Free Application for Federal Student Aid process this year. In testimony before the House Education and Workforce Committee, GAO official Melissa Emry-Arras no fewer than 40 technical problems with the FAFSA form at launch alone. These errors led to significant in the number of students 鈥� especially low-income ones 鈥� who applied for federal aid, reducing college enrollment across the country and eroding social mobility for struggling families. 

With its FAFSA failure, the department has proven it cannot effectively administer student aid programs. Its extensive student loan portfolio must be moved to the Treasury Department 鈥� and this should happen regardless of the Education Department鈥檚 eventual fate. At $1.7 trillion, the federal student aid program roughly equals a bank the size of Wells Fargo or Citibank, the third- and fourth-largest in the nation. Wells Fargo has over 226,000 to manage its portfolio, while the department has fewer than 4,400 spread across all its functions and fewer than 1,500 in the Office of Federal Student Aid. Managing the equivalent of a large bank clearly lies outside the capacity and skill set of the Education Department.  

Though not as urgent as shifting $1.7 trillion to Treasury 鈥� a Cabinet agency that deals with money 鈥� the research and evaluation activities of IES should be moved to the National Science Foundation. In bills like the CHIPS and Science Act, Congress has repeatedly closer cooperation between the foundation and the Department of Education, especially IES. 

There are several benefits to bringing IES under the foundation鈥檚 roof. IES would bring much-needed evaluation experience to NSF, ensuring taxpayer funds are spent on programs that work. Such assessments are at the core of IES鈥檚 mission, while the foundation’s education unit has not done much to study the effect of its investments on student outcomes.

Additionally, both agencies have launched in the past few years, mostly focused on a key emerging issue: how artificial intelligence can improve learning. Education research has benefited from the expertise of the foundation’s larger, more intellectually diverse sets of researchers. These include engineers, data scientists and other experts who can improve education but do not usually consider it as a research domain or IES as a potential source of support.

Having researchers work together in a unified organization would lead to closer collaboration and generate more creative innovations with greater positive impact. Moving IES into NSF would also allow the of a unit like DARPA, but for education research and development. This would lead to programs that embody the rapid turnaround and transformative vision essential to the future of education R&D.

A DARPA for education could support new partnerships with states, school districts, researchers and ed tech companies. It would certainly enable better research using AI, machine learning and cutting-edge data science methods. Already, there is considerable support for this type of program (see the , for example).

Moving IES to NSF would also give Congress the opportunity to evaluate other parts of IES鈥檚 portfolio, such as the , which have been on the chopping block repeatedly but persist at close to $60 million per year. There is far too much overlap between these and the Department of Education鈥檚 . Right now, by statute, there must be at least one comprehensive center for each of the lab program鈥檚 10 regions across the United States. Not only do these programs overlap geographically, but it鈥檚 unclear how their missions differ. According to their , the labs, 鈥渉ave collaborated with school districts, state departments of education and other education stakeholders to help generate and apply evidence, with the goal of improving learner outcomes.鈥� How does this differ from the mission of the centers, which themselves as providing 鈥渃apacity-building services to state educational agencies (SEAs), regional educational agencies (REAs), local educational agencies (LEAs) and schools that improve educational outcomes”?

The labs and the centers appear to be much the same program, just duplicated, thanks to bureaucratic bloat and turf wars. Knowing who does what is challenging even for experts at navigating bureaucracy, let alone for educators or policymakers seeking advice. Either the comprehensive center program should be merged with the regional labs, or both should be terminated.

If they survive, moving them to NSF would allow closer coordination with the , a program that promotes regional partnerships among the private sector, academia and nonprofits in critical technology fields. Strong, effective education systems must be central to that effort 鈥� and combining the foundation鈥檚 regional innovative strategy with regional education efforts would help by creating a pipeline for STEM students into local high-tech industries.

Finally, the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) should move to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, creating the Bureau of Labor and Education Statistics. The current bureau has a long history of managing the collection and distribution of sensitive data and is committed to the timely release of information 鈥� which puts it in stark contrast to NCES. For example, despite legal requirements and the importance of school and school district finance information, NCES is several years behind in releasing those crucial data. 

Programs that are not moved to other federal agencies or shut down altogether should be rolled into formula-driven block grants. This would enhance the role of the states, which are constitutionally charged with providing education and know better than the federal government what their students need. Devolving the department’s powers would also reduce its onerous regulatory requirements, which stifle much-needed educational innovation. 

Government agencies . They can be 鈥� and are 鈥� terminated when their opponents win elections and gain power. Closing agencies is challenging, and nothing the size of even the small Department of Education has been shuttered so far. But political will and hard work can make it so. The right administration could give the nation a more efficient, dynamic and responsive school system 鈥� all things the Department of Education has been hard-pressed to do.

In January, the surveyed more than 1,600 public K-12 schools from every state and the District of Columbia 鈥� where 53 percent in low poverty neighborhoods said they do a 鈥渧ery good鈥� or 鈥渆xcellent鈥� job preparing students for college and 52 percent said the same for the workforce.

But public school educators in high poverty neighborhoods were lower at 33 and 43 percent respectively.

鈥淚f they鈥檙e assessing themselves based on the post-graduation success of their students, it makes sense why they feel they’re not doing as well,鈥� said Josh Wyner, founder and executive director of the .

Wyner said the college enrollment rate of high school students from low-income backgrounds is generally less than those from higher income areas, and they end up facing lower wages long-term if they go directly into the workforce.

鈥淲hile it’s discouraging that schools serving lower income and more diverse students believe they’re not doing as good a job, something they can do about it appears in the study,鈥� he added, noting the correlation between offering more advanced coursework 鈥� such as Advanced Placement and dual enrollment 鈥� and their perception of how they prepare high school students for the next stage of their lives.

The survey, which serves as part of the latest tracking the pandemic鈥檚 impact on public education, asked educators how they viewed their preparation of high school students for college and the workforce on a five-point scale 鈥� from 鈥減oor鈥� to 鈥渆xcellent.鈥�

About 47 percent said they do a 鈥渧ery good鈥� or 鈥渆xcellent鈥� job preparing students for college and 50 percent said the same for the workforce.

鈥淚 hope this data will spark important conversations that lead to improved opportunities for all students,鈥� said NCES commissioner Peggy Carr in a statement.

Here are four things to know about the survey findings:

1. Public school educators in high poverty neighborhoods with more students of color were less likely to say they鈥檙e preparing students well for college and the workforce.

The report found public schools in low poverty neighborhoods were more likely to say they do a 鈥渧ery good鈥� or 鈥渆xcellent鈥� job preparing students for college compared to those in high poverty neighborhoods 鈥� a difference of 53 and 33 percent respectively.

Statistics were similar about the workforce 鈥� a difference of 52 and 43 percent respectively.

The report also found public schools with fewer students of color were more likely to say they do a 鈥渧ery good鈥� or 鈥渆xcellent鈥� job preparing students for college compared to those with a majority 鈥� a difference of 57 and 36 percent respectively.

Statistics were similar about the workforce 鈥� a difference of 55 and 41 percent respectively.

Wyner said the contrast based on poverty level and the number of students of color comes from the disproportionate access to advanced coursework.

鈥淲e’ve known for a long time that AP access is inequitable, but the fact that dual enrollment access is also inequitable鈥s troubling,鈥� Wyner said.

The study found 73 percent of public schools offered at least one of the following: Advanced Placement, Pre-Advanced Placement, International Baccalaureate or dual enrollment courses.

About 76 percent of public schools in low poverty neighborhoods offered advanced coursework compared to 65 percent of those in high poverty neighborhoods.

But the difference was greater based on the number of students of color.

About 84 percent of public schools with fewer students of color offered advanced coursework compared to 65 percent of those with a majority.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a little bit of a surprise because [a majority] of those courses are offered by community colleges which are often located in areas that serve high need high school students,鈥� Wyner said. 

鈥淪o you would think that those partnerships would be stronger and enable expanded access to advanced courses 鈥� but they don’t.鈥�

2. Public school educators with smaller student populations were less likely to say they鈥檙e preparing students well for college and the workforce.

Public schools with less than 300 students were the least likely to say they do a 鈥渧ery good鈥� or 鈥渆xcellent鈥� job preparing students for college and the workforce compared to those with a larger population.

Wyner said this is because public schools with fewer students are generally located in less densely populated areas, such as towns and rural areas, with less resources and proximity to other educational institutions.

鈥淪ome of this has to do with urbanicity,鈥� Wyner said. 鈥淚n some communities, economic opportunity is limited鈥o high school students, no matter how well-prepared, may not readily be able to find a job if they’re staying in these areas.鈥�

3. Public school educators in towns were less likely to say they鈥檙e preparing students well for college 鈥� but those in cities had similar attitudes for the workforce.

Public schools in towns were the least likely to say they do a 鈥渧ery good鈥� or 鈥渆xcellent鈥� job preparing students for college compared to those in cities, suburbs or rural areas.

But those in cities were the least likely to have the same attitude about preparing students for the workforce.

Wyner said the local economies are likely driving these perceptions 鈥� with public schools in towns and rural areas having a higher number of blue collar jobs compared to cities having a higher number of college opportunities.

鈥淭he reality is that schools that are in knowledge-based economies, which tend to be centered in cities, will consider themselves more capable of preparing students for a liberal arts education whereas schools in areas with a higher percentage of jobs in agriculture, manufacturing or some of the more blue collar jobs will view themselves as stronger in preparing students for the workforce,鈥� Wyner said.

鈥淭here are also many parts of the country that have long traditions of having jobs that don鈥檛 require postsecondary training,鈥� he added, pointing to the lingering impact of careers in the automotive, steel mill and manufacturing industries.

4. Public school educators in the Midwest were less likely to say they鈥檙e preparing students well for college 鈥� but those in the West had similar attitudes for the workforce. 

Public schools in the Midwest were the least likely to say they do a 鈥渧ery good鈥� or 鈥渆xcellent鈥� job preparing students for college compared to those in the Northeast, South and West.

But those in the West were the least likely to have the same attitude about preparing students for the workforce.

鈥淚t makes sense why we see a correlation between location, morality and postsecondary and employment opportunities for students,鈥� Wyner said.

鈥淭his study should offer guidance to [public schools] to find the right ways to prepare students for college and the workforce鈥nd give them that sense of self-efficacy that they know what鈥檚 right for them.鈥�

The release, from the National Center for Education Statistics, shows that with nearly 50 million students, enrollment was still 2% less than 2019 figures. Only Idaho and North Dakota saw enrollment increase about 2% over that time period, while multiple states, including California, Mississippi and New York saw declines of at least 5%.

The data confirms earlier state-level figures and pointing to the loss of students from traditional school districts and a shift toward private schools, homeschooling and newer models, like microschools and hybrid programs. Those trends added to large-scale declines in the number of school-age children that predate the COVID era. All combined, experts say, most districts shouldn鈥檛 expect to see growth anytime soon, and many have already announced school closures.

鈥淭his national demographic decline has first-order implications for whether many schools can reasonably expect enrollment to rebound,鈥� said Thomas Dee, an economist at Stanford University who tracks pandemic-era enrollment data. As , he added, 鈥淲e are seeing its implications for schools 鈥� enduring enrollment loss and the corresponding pressure to close schools and layoff staff.鈥�

In December, NCES released data showing a small uptick in over the same time period that public schools saw their largest declines. Later this year, officials will release newer data on students attending private schools as well as those who are homeschooled. But even those figures could leave some questions unanswered. 

鈥淲e have reasons to expect to see an increase in the number of students being home educated, even though a lot of home education may be unreported,鈥� said Sofoklis Goulas, a researcher at the Brookings Institution who has also analyzed enrollment data. 

Despite enrollment remaining relatively flat between 2021 and 2022 鈥� less than a 1% increase 鈥� there was still a lot of variation at the state level. Louisiana saw the most growth, with a 5% increase, while several states, including California, Colorado, Illinois and New York, saw declines of at least 4%.

Nearly 44% of public K-12 schools were staffed with school resource officers at least once a week during the 2021-22 school year, by the Education Department鈥檚 National Center for Education Statistics. Between Floyd鈥檚 murder in May 2020 and June 2022, ended their school resource officer programs or cut their budgets following widespread Black Lives Matter protests and concerns that campus policing has detrimental effects on students 鈥� and Black youth in particular. 

The data reflect an 11% decrease in school policing from the 2019-20 school year, when more than 49% of schools had a regular police presence, according to the nationally representative federal survey. That year, schools underwent an increase in campus policing after the 2018 mass school shootings in Parkland, Florida, and Santa Fe, Texas, prompted a surge in new security funding and mandates, a pattern that could repeat itself when future federal numbers capture the nation鈥檚 reaction to the 2022 school shooting in Uvalde, Texas.

鈥淭his is the George Floyd effect,鈥� said criminal justice researcher Shawn Bushway, who pulled up a calculator during a telephone interview with 社区黑料 and crunched the federal survey data against that removed cops from their buildings, which collectively served more than 1.7 million students. 

鈥淚t鈥檚 not seismic, but I think what鈥檚 most interesting about it is that it鈥檚 the reversal of a trend in a fairly dramatic way,鈥� said Bushway, a University at Albany in New York professor. 鈥淚t鈥檚 been going up quite a bit and now it鈥檚 dropped.鈥�

The new federal data were published the same week as Thursday鈥檚 release of a damning U.S. Department of Justice report that cited 鈥渃ritical failures鈥� by police during the May 2022 mass shooting at Uvalde鈥檚 Robb Elementary School in which 19 students and two teachers were killed. During the shooting, 376 law enforcement officers responded to the scene but waited more than an hour to confront the 18-year-old shooter, a botched reaction that disregarded established police protocols and, investigators said, cost lives.

鈥淗ad law enforcement agencies followed generally accepted practices in an active shooter situation and gone right after the shooter to stop him, lives would have been saved and people would have survived,鈥� U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland said in Uvalde.

鈥淭heir loved ones deserved better,鈥� he said. 

Chris Chapman, the associate commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics, said on a press call Tuesday that the survey data didn鈥檛 make clear a definitive reason for the decline in school-based officers. Experts said that several other factors, including campus closures during the pandemic, budget constraints and a national police officer shortage, may have also contributed. 

Either way, the downward trend may be short-lived. 

Multiple districts that cut their school resource officer programs after Floyd鈥檚 murder, including those in Denver, Colorado, and Arlington, Virginia, reversed course after educators reported an uptick in classroom disorder after COVID-era remote learning. Mass school shootings have long driven efforts to bolster campus policing, a reality that has played out in the last several years as the nation experienced an unprecedented number of such attacks. 

Despite officers鈥� grievously mishandled response in Uvalde, the shooting led to renewed efforts in Texas and elsewhere to strengthen police presence in schools. A similar situation played out after the mass shooting at Parkland鈥檚 Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School. Federal data show national growth in campus policing even after the school resource officer assigned to the Broward County campus failed to confront the gunman, who killed 17 people. 

The now-former officer, Scot Peterson, was acquitted of criminal negligence and perjury charges but faces a new trial in a civil lawsuit by shooting victims鈥� families, who allege his failure to intervene during the six-minute attack displayed a 鈥渨anton and willful disregard鈥� for students鈥� and teachers鈥� safety. Qualified immunity generally protects officers from liability for mistakes made on the job. 

After Parkland, a new Florida law required an armed security presence on every K-12 campus. The Uvalde shooting led to similar . In both states, a police officer labor shortage, which experts said may have contributed to the 2021-22 decline in schools, has hindered officials鈥� efforts to comply. In Kentucky, more than 40% of schools lack school resource officers, a reality that school officials have blamed on a lack of funding and a depleted applicant pool. 

鈥淚t wouldn’t surprise me if, when that data comes back out, we see that spike go back up,鈥� said Mo Canady, executive director of the National Association of School Resource Officers, which offers a training program for campus cops. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not the way I want to gain business, but some of the busiest years we鈥檝e had training wise are 18 months after a school massacre. I can tell you that 2019 was the biggest year in our association鈥檚 history by far 鈥� and that鈥檚 coming right off the Marjory Stoneman Douglas massacre.鈥�

Advocates for police-free schools recognize the headwinds they face. Tyler Whittenberg, the deputy director of the Advancement Project鈥檚 Opportunity to Learn initiative, said that while advocates 鈥渁re proud of the victories that were won鈥� after George Floyd鈥檚 murder, educators who removed police from schools 鈥渁re fighting really hard to hold onto those gains,鈥� some of which face in districts that don鈥檛 want them. 

鈥淲e’re not really rushing to a conclusion that this represents an overall reduction in police in schools, especially because for many of our partners on the ground this is not their day-to-day experience,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e having to fight back 鈥� especially at the state level 鈥� against efforts to increase the number of police in their schools.鈥� 

Safety threats on the decline

In the 1970s, just 1% of schools were staffed by police. Decades of efforts since then to swell their ranks have coincided with a marked improvement in campus safety. 

During the 2021-22 school year, 67% of schools reported at least one violent crime on campus, totaling some 857,500 violent incidents. Federal data show the nation鈥檚 schools experienced a violent crime rate of 18 incidents per 1,000 students in 2021-22. That鈥檚 a steep decline from 1999-00, when schools recorded a violent crime rate of 32 incidents per 1,000, and 2009-10, when the violent crime rate was 25 per 1,000. 

Police officers鈥� contributions to making schools safer over the past two decades, however, remain the subject of ongoing research and heated debate. In a study last year, which was published in the peer-reviewed Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Bushway and his colleagues found that placing . And although researchers were unable to analyze officers鈥� effects on mass school shootings because such tragedies are statistically rare, they were associated with an uptick in reported firearm offenses 鈥� suggesting an increased detection of guns. The officers were also associated with a stark uptick in student disciplinary actions, including suspensions and arrests, particularly among Black students and those with disabilities. 

鈥淭here鈥檚 a cost-benefit here and everybody鈥檚 calculus on how you weigh these different things is going to be different,鈥� Bushway said. 鈥淭here鈥檚 no pure answer to that question, different people are going to answer that question differently.鈥�

Previous research suggests that suspensions or improve school safety, but have detrimental effects on punished students鈥� academic performance, attendance and behavior. Their effects on non-misbehaving students remain unclear. 

Other researchers have reached a much more critical conclusion about the effects of school-based police on students. In in November on the existing literature into school officers鈥� efficacy, researchers failed to identify evidence that school-based law enforcement promoted safety in schools but reinforced concerns that their presence 鈥渃riminalizes students and schools.鈥� 

鈥淚 think the evidence is increasingly supporting the notion that police don’t belong in schools,鈥� report author Ben Fisher, an associate professor of civil society and community studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told 社区黑料. Removing officers who have been there for years, he said, may cause problems of its own. 鈥淚f we鈥檙e going to get police out of schools, which I think is the right long-term vision and short-term vision, I think we need to do it thoughtfully with plans in place to make schools welcoming and supportive.鈥� 

The federal survey, which was conducted between Feb. 15 and July 19, 2022, also found large geographical differences in the types of tools that school-based police use on the job. Across the board, officers in urban areas were less likely than their rural and suburban counterparts to carry guns and pepper spray or to be equipped with body-worn cameras. 

Beyond data on campus policing, the new federal survey offers a comprehensive look at the state of campus safety and security, reflecting school leaders鈥� responses to the pandemic and record numbers of mass school shootings. Other findings include: 

• In 2021-22, about 49% of schools provided diagnostic mental health assessments to evaluate students for mental health disorders. This is a decline from 2019-20, when 55% conducted assessments. Meanwhile, 38% provided students with treatments for mental health disorders in 2021-22, down from 42% in 2019-20. 

• Restorative justice, a conflict resolution technique, was used in 59% of schools in 2021-22, which was similar to 2019-20 but an increase from the 42% that used the approach in 2017-18. 

• The latest data indicate a decline in campus drug and alcohol incidents. In 2021-22, 71% of schools reported at least one incident involving the distribution, possession or use of illegal drugs, down from 77% in 2019-20. Meanwhile, 34% reported at least one alcohol-related incident in 2021-22, down from 41% in 2019-20. 

The latest federal data on the public education workforce, released Tuesday, shows 45% of leaders said they were understaffed as the new school year began. That鈥檚 down from just over half last year. But the vast majority of schools say they鈥檙e still struggling to hire enough teachers and other staff, including classroom aides, bus drivers and mental health professionals. 

In the latest results from the School Pulse Panel 鈥� a National Center for Education Statistics survey 鈥� over 1,300 administrators reported having the hardest time hiring enough elementary and special education teachers as well as classroom aides and custodial staff. 

鈥淵ou used to have thousands of applicants for every one vacancy. You don’t have that anymore,鈥� said Mary Elizabeth Davis, superintendent of the Henry County Schools, outside Atlanta. Her team tried to attract candidates this year at local fairs, festivals and civic events, but still has about 100 vacancies districtwide. 鈥淲e actually had recruiting tables at our high school graduations.鈥� 

While conditions vary from district to district, the overall uptick in since the pandemic has forced district and school leaders to rely on substitutes, contract with virtual teaching companies and offer attractive incentives to lure new hires. Meanwhile, temporary federal relief funds offered the chance to create new positions to help with academic recovery efforts, but there haven鈥檛 always been enough candidates to fill those roles. Whether job seekers are leaving for other districts or finding positions outside of education, they clearly have the upper hand in this current market.

鈥淚t is harder to hire than it was pre-pandemic,鈥� said Chad Aldeman, a researcher who focuses on the teacher job market. 鈥淭he labor force participation rate is really high, unemployment is really low and basically anyone of working age who wants a job can find it.鈥� 

Recent confirms that what many have called a crisis in teacher employment is slightly less severe this year. Compared to last fall, there鈥檚 a 2% increase in the number of public school employees 鈥� or about 150,000 more. But districts have to work harder to win over those sought-after candidates and get creative when they can鈥檛. 

To fill the gaps, the Henry district has hired more teachers from overseas and attracted 25 new college graduates through a 鈥渞etention scholarship.” In exchange for a two-year commitment, the district covers the cost of their teaching credential program. 

Henry has also joined the growing number of districts across the country using virtual teaching companies. While a substitute or aide supervises students in the classroom, licensed teachers provide instruction remotely 鈥� sometimes from several states away. Davis tells parents the remote arrangement is far better than using a substitute. Without it, she added, their children might not be able to take Spanish III or A.P. Calculus.

鈥淭his is what kids are going to need to be able to do in college, so we actually see this as a good thing,鈥� she said. 

鈥楧ouble-edged sword鈥�

Even districts with traditionally stable workforces have had to take unusual measures to ensure students have teachers. The 5,600-student Rush-Henrietta Central School District, south of Rochester, New York, typically loses no more than five teachers a year. This past summer, Superintendent Barbara Mullen saw 28 leave, mostly to neighboring districts that offer more money. She organized a job fair 鈥� something the district has never had to do.

鈥淲e issued a press release. I went on the news,鈥� she said. 鈥淧eople were walking in off the street.鈥� 

When that effort only filled 12 positions, she gave educators an unexpected pay raise 鈥� a minimum of $1,600 for veteran teachers and up to $5,000 for newer teachers. Non-teaching staff also received raises. With federal relief funds expiring next year, she said staff members recognize there could be leaner years ahead.

鈥淚 needed to send a strategic message that compensation is important and working conditions are important,鈥� she said.

Like many districts, Rush-Henrietta uses a grow-your-own approach to address staff shortages. Parents can work as interns in the district鈥檚 Cub Care Zone afterschool program and then take the exam to become a teaching assistant.

Other districts offer an accelerated route to a teaching job to classroom aides, professionals changing careers and even those . States were long before the pandemic, but have expanded those policies to address the current emergency. 

But such actions can also leave holes to fill. 

Kimberly Winterbottom, principal of Marley Middle School in Glen Burnie, Maryland, said her state offers so many to become a teacher that it can be harder to find candidates still willing to work as substitutes and classroom assistants 鈥� the staff members schools have been relying on to give students extra support. 

鈥淚t鈥檚 like a double-edged sword,鈥� she said.

Her school had 35 open positions this year. She was able to fill them, but candidates, she said, weighed offers between multiple districts and have grown choosy about which grade levels they want to teach. 

鈥淭he candidate holds the cards,鈥� she said.

As the numbers show, however, leaders say this fall feels like more of a return to earlier years when it was tough to find teachers in areas such as science and special education, but shortages didn鈥檛 overwhelm the system. In several cases last year, districts even had to because there weren鈥檛 enough teachers.

Davis, in Henry County, said one sign of progress is that 89% of substitute positions have been filled this fall, compared to 40% last year. 

鈥淧art of the retention challenge was exhaustion. People were doing multiple people’s jobs,鈥� she said. 鈥淲e鈥檝e not arrived, but we’re on a path to people being able to do their job most of the day and to start feeling effective at it. That will turn the corner for us.鈥� 

There were a record 188 school shootings resulting in injuries or deaths in the 2021-22 school year, according to the latest available data included in . That鈥檚 twice as many shootings on campus than the previous record 鈥� set just one year earlier. 

The annual report, in its 25th iteration, leverages data from across federal agencies, including the Justice Department, to provide the public and policymakers with comprehensive insight into the safety conditions of the country鈥檚 school campuses, including cyberbullying and weapons possession. The new data offer fresh fodder in the ongoing political debate about how to thwart gun violence in schools. 

In some ways, the policy outcomes from such attacks are apparent in the data itself. As high-profile shootings and other campus safety incidents drive divisive discussions about gun control and policing, they鈥檝e also led to a surge in 鈥� and near-universal adoption of 鈥� numerous physical security measures. By 2019-20, 97% of public schools controlled access to their campuses, 91% used surveillance cameras and 77% required district employees to wear badges. The number of campuses with security staff ballooned from 43% in 2010 to 65% by 2020. 

The spike in parental concerns over school safety seen in the aftermath of high-profile school shootings in Parkland, Florida, in 2018 and last year in Uvalde, Texas, dipped slightly this year, . Among surveyed parents, 38% reported that they fear for their child鈥檚 safety, down from 44% in 2022. Still, the percentage of people who fear for their children鈥檚 safety is still among the highest it鈥檚 been since Gallup began to poll parents on the topic in 1977. Gallup鈥檚 historical high, at 55%, was measured shortly after the 1999 Columbine High School shooting in suburban Denver. 

For the purpose of the federal report, 鈥渟chool shootings鈥� include 鈥渁ll incidents in which a gun is brandished or fired or a bullet hits school property for any reason, regardless of the number of victims鈥� and motive, including planned attacks, accidents and domestic violence. The methodology and collection methods used by the Education Department differ from those of other groups and media outlets that track school shootings. For example, the lists 250 school shootings in 2021 and 305 in 2022. , which only includes incidents where someone is struck by a bullet, counts 35 school shootings in 2021 and 51 in 2022. 

The federal report doesn鈥檛 include school-shooting data from the 2022-23 academic year. 

While the federal data on school gun violence incidents 鈥渋s of course extremely striking,鈥� it is just 鈥渙ne piece in the puzzle of our understanding of school shootings,鈥� V茅ronique Irwin, an associate education research analyst with the National Center for Education Statistics, said on a press call Tuesday. 鈥淚t鈥檚 important for us to examine other dimensions as well.鈥� 

Despite the recent uptick in campus firearm incidents, the number of violent deaths of students in schools hasn鈥檛 followed a similar trendline and remains rare, the new federal report reveals. Nor have 鈥渁ctive shootings,鈥� a specific subset of campus gun violence, like the Parkland and Uvalde attacks, where an individual is 鈥渁ctively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a populated area.鈥� Fourteen people were wounded or killed in active school shootings in 2021, the report revealed, compared to a high of 81 in 2018. 

Between 2000 and 2021, there were 46 active shooting incidents, resulting in 108 deaths and 168 injuries. Of the 47 people who carried out the active shootings, all but one was male. 

Beyond school shootings, the new federal report offers a mixed bag on various campus safety metrics, and at times that have sounded the alarm about an uptick in student misbehavior since the pandemic. 

Between the 2009-10 school year and 2019-20, the number of students who reported campus bullying decreased from 23% to 15% and reported gang activities dropped by more than half. School fights, weapons possession and alcohol use also declined. For some metrics, the most recent data are from 2019 and don鈥檛 capture the disruptive nature of COVID campus closures. Data captured after the pandemic began should be interpreted with these destabilizing forces in mind. 

Educators also experienced improved safety conditions in schools between 2011 and 2021, the report suggests. Six percent of teachers reported that a student had threatened to injure them in 2020-21, a decrease from 10 percent a decade earlier. Similar declines were observed in the number of teachers who fell victim to attacks. 

Still, the research revealed that educators have observed an uptick in disrespect from students, verbal abuse and overall classroom disorder. 

That鈥檚 essentially unchanged from last school year, but significantly worse than before the pandemic, when only 36% of students started school off track, the National Center for Education Statistics has found. 

Additionally, over 80% of the 1,026 schools that responded to the the latest survey said they鈥檙e providing some form of tutoring to help students catch up. But the latest post-pandemic snapshot reinforces the sense that the pace of academic recovery remains slow.听

鈥淲e’ve got a long road ahead of us,鈥� said Rachel Hansen, a project officer at NCES. 

Districts have about a year and a half left to decide the best way to use their share of听$189 billion in federal pandemic relief funds. And with the clock ticking, some whether districts will be able to have a measurable impact on learning loss. About half of the administrators who responded to the latest survey said they鈥檙e spending relief funds on providing students with extra academic support and training staff to become tutors. But the survey, conducted in December, showed that just 1 in 10 students nationally received high-dosage tutoring.

Students are 鈥渘ot the same level of ready鈥� they were before the pandemic, said Beth Lehr, assistant principal at Sahuarita High School, south of Tucson. 鈥淲e had a major world event that upended a whole bunch of different things.鈥�

Some students in this year鈥檚 junior and senior classes missed entire semesters of a course during their early high school years, when the pandemic was at its peak. The district tweaked its existing credit recovery program to allow those students to learn the material and graduate on time.听

The NCES data found that schools are employing a variety of recovery strategies听to get students back on grade level, including using assessments to identify their needs (88%), covering material students missed (81%) and holding longer classes (29%). Schools were least likely to extend the school day (19%) or extend the school year (10%).听

The latest installment also provided a detailed look at schools鈥� efforts to implement high-dosage tutoring, which Stanford University researcher Susanna Loeb called the 鈥渂est approach that we know for accelerating students鈥� learning鈥� because it offers students help from 鈥渁n adult who knows them, cares about them and has the tools to address their needs.鈥� 

She has been tracking the implementation of large-scale tutoring efforts across the country as part of the and called the survey results 鈥渢he most comprehensive information out there鈥� on how schools are addressing learning loss.

More than a third of schools (37%) say they offer high-dosage tutoring, defined as at least a half hour of one-on-one or small group instruction three times a week with a trained educator. But less than a third of students in those schools participate, according to NCES.

Schools offering a high-impact model primarily lean on existing staff 鈥� teachers and aides 鈥� to provide it. And they鈥檙e more likely to schedule sessions during the school day, 64%, compared with 51% after school.

鈥淥ur teachers are our experts,鈥� said Michael Randolph, principal at Leesburg High School in Leesburg, Florida, where about 150 to 200 students participate in tutoring sessions throughout the week. He said teachers have been willing to put in the extra time because they see the payoff. 

His school combines tutoring with twice-a-week remediation sessions added to the schedule the year COVID hit. He thinks those efforts contributed to the school ending last semester with the lowest number of D鈥檚 and F鈥檚 since he became principal six years ago.听

But some schools responding to the survey faced ongoing barriers. Forty percent said they can鈥檛 find tutors and 49% said that even with relief funds, they lack the funding to hire them.

Lehr said it鈥檚 been hard to get teachers to add tutoring to their plate because they are 鈥渁lmost on empty.鈥� If they鈥檙e 鈥渢apped out,鈥� she added, it doesn鈥檛 make sense for them to tack two more hours of work onto their day for another $50.

Schools that are more likely to offer high-dosage tutoring, the data shows, serve elementary students, have high poverty rates and high minority populations and are located in cities. There are also regional differences, with schools in the South offering the most high-dosage tutoring (15%) and those in the Northeast offering the least (5%).

Fifty-nine percent of students receive what the researchers described as 鈥渟tandard鈥� tutoring, which might still be in small groups, but not as frequent. And 22% have access to 鈥渟elf-paced鈥� tutoring from an online provider. 

Those services are 鈥渦seful supplements鈥� for students who might need a little help in a subject area, Loeb said, but the less-intensive approaches are unlikely to 鈥渁lter the trajectories of students who have disengaged in school or who have fallen far behind academically.鈥� 

Randolph, at Leesburg High, said he thinks the best decision his district made with relief funds was to add a night school to accommodate students who still work jobs they took during the pandemic. The school has received $250,000 a year to run the program, but when relief funds run out, Randolph said he鈥檒l have to find another way to fund it. About 50 students participate.听

鈥淎 lot of our students took entry level jobs and became contributors to their households,鈥� he said. When remote learning ended, he said, many students would have dropped out. 鈥淭his has maintained students鈥� ability to stay in school.鈥�

Getting a college degree has typically paved the way for a better economic future. Those with bachelor’s degrees typically  over their lifetimes than they would have with only a high school diploma.

The price of that college degree has become more daunting by the year. The average undergraduate tuition, fees, room, and board for full-time students in the 2020-21 school year was $25,910.

While grants and scholarships offset the cost of college, many people finance their higher education through student loans, which has resulted in about 44 million Americans who are now paying off.

examined data from the to see how college costs for private and public higher education institutions have changed between the 1963 and 2020 academic years, the latest data available. Tuition and fees were weighted by the number of full-time-equivalent undergraduates, while room and board are based on full-time undergraduate students.

Room and board accounts for student housing and meal plans. For public institutions, the in-district or in-state tuition was used. To account for inflation, amounts were calculated in today’s dollars using the Consumer Price Index.

The cost of college since 1963

In the 1940s, ’50s, and ’60s, the federal government passed several pieces of legislation that sent more money to states to fund higher education and kept college costs down. More people opted to go to college because it was more affordable.

In the last 15 years, states have slashed funding for colleges, spending  on higher education in 2018 than they did in 2008. Colleges opted to shift more of the cost burden onto students by increasing tuition. Household income hasn’t kept up with these increases, so students have primarily turned to student loans to fund their education.

How four-year and two-year college costs compare

Four-year colleges typically cost more than two-year colleges because they tend to spend much more on infrastructure, administration, and student services than two-year colleges. On the whole, four-year colleges are designed for students who leave their families to go to school, so there are more dorms, student health services, student clubs, and programs鈥攁nd the occasional .

Two-year colleges tend to target commuter students who live at home, and they can also offer more skills-based or technical programs, both of which help keep the school’s overall operating budget lower. While tuition and fees are much cheaper at two-year schools, they do get just from tuition. Cuts in state funding over the last 15 years have caused tuition at these institutions to creep up.

Increases at private schools outpaced public schools

The sticker price of tuition at private schools has far outpaced that of public schools over the last 30 years. Private schools don’t get government funding, so they rely on their endowment, tuition dollars, and donations to cover their costs. They also tend to be smaller than publicly funded schools, so they often charge more tuition and fees since there are fewer students.

That said, private schools often offer tuition discounts as a way to make the costs seem more bearable. These discounts can include merit-based awards, fellowships, grants, and other funds that lower the full tuition price. In 2021-2022, first-time, first-year students at private universities received an estimated on average, which is an all-time high according to the National Association of College and University Business Officers. Among all undergraduates, private universities offered a 49% average tuition discount rate. Between 2020 and 2022, many schools offered due to the coronavirus pandemic, though many did not renew them when students returned to in-person classes.

Housing has remained a fix portion of cost while dining has decreased

Colleges leverage on-campus room and board as another source of revenue. In the, many colleges added more amenities, technology, and specialized dining options to make them more attractive to prospective students who wanted all the comforts of home. Of course, this contributed to higher costs in terms of maintenance.

While the cost of food has gone down over time, that could be a result of how meal statistics are defined. Prior to the 1986-1987 academic year, board was defined as meals seven days a week, without any insight into how many meals were actually served. Now it’s defined as 20 meals per week.

This story originally appeared on Sound Dollar and was produced and distributed in partnership with Stacker Studio.

But amid the carnage, one feel-good story emerged. Los Angeles, the nation鈥檚 second-largest school district, appeared to have accomplished a reading miracle, with eighth-grade scores jumping an incredible nine points.

Peggy Carr, the nation鈥檚 top testing official, called the district鈥檚 performance one of the few 鈥渂right spots鈥� on the National Assessment of Educational Progress, otherwise known as 鈥淭he Nation鈥檚 Report Card.鈥�

The media took note. and trumpeted the development, one that Alberto Carvalho, the district鈥檚 superintendent, said 鈥渂odes very well for our L.A., and is really a testament to our strategy.鈥�

Almost as soon as the news sank in, however, a host of naysayers emerged to pop L.A.鈥檚 balloon. Among wonks on edu-Twitter, the skeptic鈥檚 case went something like this:

• Nine-point jumps on NAEP are extremely rare.
• It happened in a huge urban district and during an educationally punishing pandemic, when most school systems鈥� scores tanked or, at best, stayed flat.
• NAEP is typically harder than most state assessments. Yet L.A. scores on the national test eclipsed those on California鈥檚 Smarter Balanced assessment, where the district鈥檚 eighth-grade readers inched forward a barely perceptible half a percent. 

Speaking for many researchers, Robin Lake, director of the Center on Reinventing Public Education, took to Twitter to say the results

At first, they didn鈥檛 sit right with the test鈥檚 administrators either. That鈥檚 why prior to NAEP鈥檚 release, the National Center for Education Statistics conducted extensive internal reviews and called on outside experts to crunch the numbers to understand what they were seeing.

鈥淭he L.A. results 鈥� certainly caught our attention, because they stood out as different from the nation as a whole and the other鈥� school systems that take NAEP, said Daniel McGrath, branch chief of the assessment division at NCES. Twenty-six districts participated in the Trial Urban District Assessment, which allows for comparisons across the nation鈥檚 large urban districts. 

The researchers 鈥渢urned over many additional rocks鈥� to back up a result they knew would raise eyebrows, he said. The American Institutes for Research conducted a separate analysis of the 2022 scores. 

The results offer the kind of frustrating nuance researchers are known for, confirming neither the unmitigated triumph of the district鈥檚 cheerleaders nor the worst-case scenarios of the skeptics.

After performing a series of statistical checks and balances, McGrath said L.A.鈥檚 schools saw a 鈥済enuine increase in student performance.鈥� Because of all the interest, NCES plans to add some technical notes to its explaining factors that affected this year鈥檚 results in Los Angeles.

A 鈥榩iece of the puzzle鈥� 

L.A. district staff participated in NCES鈥檚 Oct. 11-13 pre-release workshop to discuss the results. And on Oct. 19, the NCES team held a separate meeting on Zoom with Carvalho to answer questions about the extra steps it took to verify the data. 

The researchers explained that one factor in the district鈥檚 performance was the sample of schools in which students were tested. , the last time the nation鈥檚 students took NAEP, L.A.鈥檚 high-performing, affiliated charter schools weren鈥檛 included. This year, they were.

Including those scores 鈥� from five of the 60 schools in the sample 鈥� accounted for roughly two points in the nine-point climb in eighth-grade reading, McGrath said. That鈥檚 鈥渙ne piece of the puzzle.鈥�

Affiliated charters are district schools, but operate with some flexibility. They perform significantly higher than district schools overall, and this year鈥檚 state test scores show just how much. Forty-two percent of the district鈥檚 eighth graders met or exceeded state standards in English, compared to 66% in the district鈥檚 , according to 社区黑料鈥檚 review of .

Since the scores鈥� release, Carvalho the district鈥檚 efforts to provide summer school, tutoring and internet connections during remote learning. 鈥淗ow about those NAEP scores!鈥� he said during public comments Friday. In addition to the nine-point increase in reading for eighth graders, he touted the district鈥檚 fourth-grade reading scores, which went up two points compared to an average three-point decline in other districts. And he offered a pointed rebuke to those he described as 鈥渋nteresting fellows鈥� on social media who 鈥渨ork at places like Harvard.鈥�

鈥淭hey do nothing but study what we do and write about it,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hat data is accurate, and to assert anything other than that is to diminish the impact that our teachers, our principals, our support staff and 鈥� our students produced.鈥�   

Carvalho doesn鈥檛 need to be reminded of NAEP鈥檚 reputation as the 鈥済old standard鈥� in testing. He鈥檚 a of the National Assessment Governing Board, which sets policy for the test.

While a nine-point increase is rare, leaps in that range are not unheard-of, according to examples provided by NCES. Boston Public Schools, for instance, saw a 10-point increase in fourth-grade math between 2003 to 2005. And eighth-grade reading scores in the District of Columbia schools jumped eight points between 2011 and 2013. 

Demographic shifts

Some experts noted that Los Angeles has also experienced major demographic shifts in recent years that would affect student performance. Immigration in Los Angeles County, and Carvalho has often noted that officials can鈥檛 account for thousands of . 

Between the 2019-20 and 2021-22 school years, district enrollment fell by a staggering 10%. This factor deserves more attention, said Thomas Dee, a Stanford University economist and education professor. 

鈥淭he composition of that enrollment changed by a variety of student traits and the impact of such changes on LAUSD’s recent test scores is far from clear,鈥� said Dee, who has been tracking pandemic enrollment trends. 

NCES officials thought of this, too.

It turns out that demographic changes didn鈥檛 affect the overall increases. In fact, students in each racial and ethnic group made gains between 2019 and 2022. The district鈥檚 Hispanic student enrollment fell during that time period while enrollment of white students increased. But the addition of the affiliated charters effectively canceled out the impact of that population shift, McGrath said.

NCES also considered one group of students who didn鈥檛 participate in this year鈥檚 NAEP 鈥� those who were still learning remotely in spring 2022. Last year, the district鈥檚 virtual school, City of Angels, included 76 eighth graders. If they were all lower-performing students and if they had been included in the sample, it鈥檚 possible the district鈥檚 scores would have been lower. But to drag it down even one point, those students would have had to score 20 points below the district鈥檚 average, McGrath said.

The NAEP results also didn鈥檛 jibe with typical comparisons to state tests. Usually, districts on state assessments than on NAEP. 

In this case, the overall percentage of Los Angeles students meeting or exceeding standards on the Smarter Balanced test declined since 2019. In eighth-grade English language arts, however, there was a miniscule increase 鈥� from 41.14% to 41.74%.

The discrepancy could be chalked up to the fact that the state test includes a writing section and NAEP does not, said Andrew Ho, an assessment expert at Harvard and part of the research team behind a new that uses NAEP and state test data to calculate learning loss. 

In of why these discrepancies occur, the team notes that it鈥檚 also possible for the students who took NAEP to include more high performers than the larger state sample. 

鈥楽till a full two years behind鈥�

The district鈥檚 results confused some education advocates in Los Angeles as well. They expressed doubt that the strategies Carvalho points to were robust enough to spark such an increase.

鈥淣one of it was happening at the scale any of us were hoping it would,鈥� said Hannah Gravette, regional vice president for Los Angeles with Innovate Public Schools, an advocacy organization that works with families in low-income communities. 

The district is offering and homework help, for example, but she said the type of in-person, consistent tutoring known to is still in the early stages.

But the superintendent who was in charge when the pandemic hit said he is not surprised by L.A.鈥檚 testing windfall. 

鈥淵ou can鈥檛 point to one thing. We did everything possible, and I don鈥檛 know of any other school district in the country that did,鈥� said Austin Beutner, listing factors such as the district鈥檚 extensive COVID testing program, the 140 million it provided to families and delivery of . 

鈥淲e sent trucks around the country to Apple stores to take inventory out of the back because they were closing,鈥� he said. And hiring aides and reading specialists to run breakout rooms over Zoom allowed students to get more individualized attention than some would have received even in a traditional classroom, he added.

Ray Hart, executive director of the Council of Great City Schools 鈥� the network of 78 urban school systems that helped launch the district assessment program 鈥� said looking further back than 2019 helps put the district鈥檚 performance in context.

The affiliated charters were part of that 2017 NAEP sample, but not in 2019, when the NAEP score in eighth-grade reading dropped from 254 to 248. McGrath said that just like charters didn鈥檛 account for the full increase in 2022, their absence wasn鈥檛 the only reason for the decline in 2019. Eighth-grade reading scores fell nationally that year, not just in Los Angeles.

Comparing apples to apples 鈥� 2017 to 2022 鈥� the difference in eighth grade reading is much smaller, a three-point increase from 254 to 257 on NAEP. This relatively flat performance is more in line with that of many districts this year, which both Hart and McGrath view as positive, considering the pandemic鈥檚 crushing impact nationally. 

鈥淭he interventions during the pandemic and after are starting to show signs that they are paying off,鈥� Hart said.

Regardless of the reason for the district鈥檚 bump, some advocates remain unimpressed.

鈥淚t is really not an improvement, but a return to pre-pandemic performance, which means students are still a full two years behind,鈥� said Alicia Montgomery, CEO of the Center for Powerful Public Schools, a nonprofit supporting school improvement efforts in the district. 

鈥淭hree points is nothing over a five-year period,鈥� she said. 鈥淚f there was no pandemic, students would have gained far more.鈥�

Almost 90% of respondents to the latest School Pulse Panel survey from the National Center for Education Statistics blame pandemic-related disruptions, including quarantines and staff absences, for the lack of progress. But limited efforts to ramp up tutoring programs could also be a factor.

More than half of public schools reported using high-dosage tutoring to help students make up for lost learning, and many offered tutoring as part of summer learning and enrichment programs this year. 

But experts, including one charged with leading the U.S. Department of Education鈥檚 new effort to recruit 250,000 tutors and mentors, offered a degree of skepticism. Robert Balfanz, a Johns Hopkins University researcher overseeing the , said that many schools have made strong efforts to provide tutoring. But they also relied largely on teachers, who have been stretched thin because of staffing shortages. 

A June of spending plans in over 5,000 districts, from FutureEd at Georgetown University, showed that 1,258 districts planned to implement tutoring..

鈥淚 can believe that half of schools attempted to provide tutoring and did so, at some scale, for some period of time,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 think it’s unlikely that half of schools have and are sustaining high-dosage tutoring at the scale that is needed or beneficial.鈥�

As schools begin a fourth year touched by the pandemic, the data from almost 860 schools provides a glimpse into what school leaders and families can expect as students return to class. Leaders report significant staff burnout and ongoing concerns about filling both teaching and non-teaching positions. But with many educators saying last school year was the hardest they鈥檝e ever been though, some are choosing to adopt a positive outlook toward the months ahead. 

鈥淚 honestly think that when we can get the social element under control 鈥� routines 鈥� and  breaking cell phone habits 鈥� we can get more than a year of material taught at a time,鈥�  Jay Wamstead, an eighth grade math teacher at Campbell Middle School in Smyrna, Georgia, told 社区黑料. 

The hardest part of last year, he said, was teachers鈥� sense of how far behind students were socially. 

鈥淚’m not sure we’ll be back to 2019 levels of 鈥榥ormal,鈥� but last year was insane for me as well as everyone I talked to,鈥� he said.

Six of his math team鈥檚 16 teachers left after last year, including two who taught at the school for over a decade. That means a lot of new faces this fall, and for some school leaders, additional holes to fill. 

鈥楿rgent needs鈥� 

Schools have an average of three teacher vacancies, with shortages hitting larger schools and those serving more poor and minority students the hardest, according to the survey. Rodriguez said staff shortages 鈥渁re acute and they pose urgent needs.鈥� It鈥檚 a frequent concern he hears from school and district leaders. 

On average, leaders were also still trying to fill three non-teaching positions, with multiple vacancies in transportation and custodial services. 

But shortages were an before the pandemic. And based on recent Bureau of Labor Statistics , the Pulse Panel data seems high, said Chad Aldeman, policy director at Georgetown University鈥檚 Edunomics Lab. If every school had at least six vacancies, that would translate to 600,000 openings nationally. According to the federal data, there were 300,000 openings for both K-12 and higher education in June. 

Regardless, 84% of leaders expect hiring mental health professionals for this fall to be somewhat or very difficult, at a time when educators continue to report greater needs among students.

鈥淚t’s clear that we’re facing a youth mental health crisis in communities across our country,鈥� Roberto Rodriquez, assistant secretary for planning, evaluation and policy development at the U.S. Department of Education, said during a call with reporters.

According to the survey, the majority of respondents reported providing mental health services, with more than 40% saying those efforts have been very or extremely effective at addressing students鈥� needs. 

But the Biden administration aims to do more. Rodriguez touted last week鈥檚 White House announcement to make almost $300 million in competitive available for mental health services in schools. Efforts will include adding more counselors, social workers and school psychologists and funding partnerships with higher education to get more people into the field. 

Schools have positions for mental health professionals 鈥渢hat are open for an entire school year that don鈥檛 get filled,鈥� said Sasha Pudleski, director of advocacy at AASA, the School Superintendents Association. She added that while schools have expanded telehealth options to address mental health needs, they 鈥渨ould prefer to have someone full time.鈥�

Amanda Fitzgerald, assistant deputy executive director at the American School Counselor Association, said states in the northeast tend to have an oversupply of school counseling graduates, but needs are greater in states such as Arizona, Oklahoma and Colorado.

The new grant programs will be helpful, she said, if they can remove barriers for those who lack full credentials. Some professionals, she said, have a background in mental health, but don鈥檛 have a school counselor license, and a lot of high school educators focus on college and career transitions, but lack mental health expertise.

鈥淭hey don鈥檛 want to go back to school to get a similar degree when their end game is to still help people,鈥� she said.听

鈥楧on鈥檛 know what to expect鈥� 

The survey also sheds light on what school leaders believe have been the most helpful strategies to address learning loss. 

Forty-three percent said high-dosage tutoring 鈥� 30-minute, one-on-one or small group sessions at least three times a week 鈥� has been very or extremely effective at addressing gaps in students鈥� learning. About a quarter of respondents said their school also provided a high-quality tutoring model as part of their summer learning programs.   

The majority of respondents said their schools used remedial instruction 鈥� covering material from a prior grade level 鈥� to address learning gaps, but they didn鈥檛 think it was as effective as tutoring. Only about a third found remediation to be very or extremely effective. 

Another aspect of last year that was overwhelming for many teachers was the wide range of student learning needs within one classroom, said Katherine Holden, principal of Talent Middle School in Phoenix, Oregon. 

Federal funds, she said, have made it possible to hire additional staff and purchase materials to give students the specific practice they need. She鈥檚 also relieved that she was able to fill all of her open positions and hire  full-time substitutes in case  teachers need to be out.

But she said she鈥檒l have to continue to be 鈥渁ggressive鈥� about reducing absenteeism so students can benefit.

鈥淲e鈥檙e probably cautiously optimistic,鈥� she told 社区黑料. 鈥淏ut if these last two years have taught us anything it’s that you don鈥檛 know what to expect.鈥�

The prospect makes the federal official in charge of measuring student progress a bit anxious. 

鈥淭he likelihood that the scores would be anything but down is pretty small,鈥� said Peggy Carr, commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics. 

While performance among the lowest-scoring fourth- and eighth-graders on the National Assessment of Educational Progress was falling well before the pandemic, Carr predicted, 鈥淚t鈥檚 more than likely we’re going to see the bottom drop even more.鈥�

Known as the Nation鈥檚 Report Card and a chief 鈥渂arometer鈥� of educational achievement in the U.S., the congressionally-mandated NAEP is the only assessment with results broken down by gender, race and socioeconomic status that can be compared across all 50 states. As such, it is a major gauge of achievement gaps that are likely to have grown larger since COVID鈥檚 arrival.

Carr鈥檚 predecessor, James 鈥淟ynn鈥� Woodworth, described this year鈥檚 administration as “the most important NAEP assessment that鈥檚 ever been done in the history of this country.鈥� In a wide-ranging interview with 社区黑料, Carr fleshed out why, explaining that the pandemic had added layers of 鈥渘oise鈥� that could make results harder to interpret.

鈥楾rue change鈥�

Even the most superficial alteration in a student鈥檚 testing experience can throw off their performance. In the , researchers determined that a change in the color of the ink on the test booklets contributed to an otherwise unexplained drop in reading performance for 9- and 17-year-olds. In 2002, the mistake was accidentally repeated with a random sample of students, and again, scores dropped. 

But the pandemic has exploded the universe of possible variables: The sample of test-takers includes masked and unmasked students, as well as smaller groups. Social distancing and other changes in the environment could also affect student performance.

鈥淚t makes me a little nervous about what we鈥檙e going to see, and how I鈥檓 going to be able to separate out what is noise and what is true change in students鈥� performance,鈥� she said. 

At the same time, collecting those results has been far from easy. From staff quitting due to illness to schools rescheduling because of students in quarantine, this round of testing is unlike anything the center has faced in the past. 

鈥淚’m getting notices every day that people are quitting or people have 鈥� caught COVID in the schools,鈥� Carr said. 

In December, there were 3,560 NAEP staff members in the field. More than 850 have quit, with over half of those leaving in December and January as Omicron started to spread, according to NCES. 

Because of COVID鈥檚 lingering interference, Carr said she was pleasantly surprised schools haven鈥檛 pulled out of the assessment. Only one district, Fresno Unified in California, opted not to participate in the Trial Urban District Assessment, which provides results for more than two dozen districts nationwide. 

Nonetheless, state and district chiefs have already expressed concern about whether Carr can guarantee the validity of the results.

鈥淭hey said, 鈥楶eggy, I鈥檝e got 900 vacancies. I have people who normally teach art teaching some academic subject,鈥欌�� she said. 

To the doubters, she emphasized that this year鈥檚 tests include the same items used in 2019, which will further give the public a 鈥渟olid trend line鈥� through the pandemic years, she said. 

NAEP, she stressed, is 鈥渟till the standard by which other large-scale assessments judge themselves, and even in the context of COVID that has not changed.鈥�

But because of the impact of the pandemic, it might seem as if this year鈥檚 results are setting a new 鈥渂aseline,鈥� Carr said. A baseline, which technically refers to official changes in the test, is the starting point researchers and policymakers use to track student performance over time.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a new day in many ways,鈥� Carr said. 鈥淗ow tests are being administered, how students are being taught and how they learn in schools today is a little different than it was before COVID.鈥� 

Despite those challenges, NCES鈥檚 responsibility is to maintain the public鈥檚 trust in NAEP as an accurate measure, said Andrew Ho, an education professor at Harvard University and a former member of the National Assessment Governing Board, which sets policy for NAEP.

Carr must help parents and educators understand how the pandemic has affected fourth- and eighth-graders鈥� math and reading achievement, he said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not a new baseline if we do our job right,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t is a decline.鈥�

He and Carr said the urban district results will be especially valuable when viewed against the backdrop of school closures at those sites. 

鈥淭here are always policy differences; they just haven鈥檛 been so confounded with historic health issues,鈥� Ho said, adding that it鈥檚 inevitable the results will become fodder for political arguments over how leaders responded to the pandemic. 鈥淓veryone likes to attach a policy story to NAEP results.鈥�

In addition to the reading and math tests, which were delayed a year because of school closures, NCES is testing eighth graders in civics and history and 9-year-olds as part of its long-term trend study. Nine-year-olds were also tested in 2019, which will allow NCES to provide pre- and post-pandemic results. Data from three years ago showed stagnant performance in both reading and math, except for girls, whose math scores dropped five points. Now researchers will be able to see how students in that age group, who were in first or second grade when schools shifted to remote learning, are performing. Next year, 13-year-olds will be assessed.

A in the Senate, introduced this month, proposes that NCES add a new component to measure the long-term impact of COVID on a representative sample of students.

It could be much harder, however, to see how U.S. students fared during the pandemic compared to their peers in other countries. While states and districts generally participate in all non-mandated NAEP tests, such as those in history, economics and technology, Carr struggles to get an adequate sample 鈥� 350 schools 鈥� for the Program for International Student Assessment and other global comparisons. 

School leaders are bombarded with requests to participate in surveys and an optional assessment can feel like one more burden. When Betsy DeVos was education secretary, Carr asked her to recruit schools for the international assessment. Michael Casserly, who led the Council of the Great City Schools and pushed for the urban assessment results, also helped.

鈥淲hen Betsy DeVos was here, we had her calling schools, and we got Mike Casserly, who’s a good friend of mine, calling schools and we barely made it,鈥� Carr said. 鈥淚t’s a hard sell. I’ve got to figure out another way to develop a relationship with the stakeholders on the ground and make it worth their while to participate.鈥�

Cloud-based tests and AI scoring 

As Carr prepares to analyze this year鈥檚 NAEP data, she鈥檚 also overseeing a modernization of the program, which has been 鈥渇ast-tracked鈥� by the pandemic, she wrote in a recent , co-authored with Lesley Muldoon, executive director of the assessment鈥檚 governing board.

Future tests will be cloud-based and downloaded to districts鈥� own devices. And beginning in 2024, NCES will no longer hire 3,500 to 4,000 administrators to deliver devices with the assessment to schools. That model, which prevented the center from conducting mandated tests in 2021, typically costs about $62 million. 

While some field staff will still be on site, using local administrators could save $22 million, according to released last week.

Also in 2024, NCES will begin using to score students鈥� essays. In January, the center announced four winners of a competition who showed AI can score an essay with 88% accuracy compared to trained individuals, Carr said.

鈥淚t may be good enough with a little bit of tweaking,鈥� she said, adding that the center will still have human scorers in 2024 to remain 鈥渟cientifically defensible.鈥�

The center will also continue running its monthly 鈥� the result of an early Biden administration to produce data on the impact of the pandemic. The survey tracks the percentages of students in in-person, hybrid and remote learning and has expanded to add questions on , quarantines and mental health. 

The project has pushed the center toward a quicker turnaround 鈥� something the governing board and state and local leaders would like to see with NAEP as well. 

鈥淚f I don’t have to put together the full-blown report card with all the bells and whistles, maybe I can get it out faster,鈥� Carr said. 鈥淏ut I’m not going to cut short the statistical analysis that I need to make sure we can stand behind the data. I鈥檒l put asterisks on it. I’ll caveat it, and then 鈥� whatever it says, I’m going to report it.鈥�

The report, released today by the National Center for Education Statistics, compiles data collected from the 2020-21 National Teacher and Principal Survey. Conducted annually as a series of questionnaires, the survey offers a comprehensive review of schooling in America. Some 76,000 teachers and nearly 13,000 principals were included in the sample for the 鈥渇irst-look鈥� study on teaching and learning conditions during the tumultuous spring of 2020. 

The report鈥檚 most striking findings highlight the gap in home internet connectivity between students enrolled in different kinds of schools. While 58 percent of private school principals reported that all of their students had access to the internet at home during this period, only 4 percent of public school principals could say the same.

The flipside of that disparity was no less stark: At the same moment that schools were closing and classes migrating to Zoom and other online platforms, 61 percent of public school principals said they鈥檇 sent wireless hotspots home with students, compared with just 9 percent of private school principals. 

In a statement accompanying the release, NCES Commissioner Peggy Carr commended the 鈥渆xtraordinary efforts鈥� of school leaders to bring virtual learning opportunities to their students.

鈥淢any principals sent hotspots and other devices to students鈥� homes, worked directly with internet providers, or offered spaces where students could safely access free Wi-Fi so that students had the opportunity to learn in this unprecedented time,鈥� Carr said.

But in spite of the massive effort expended to ease the switch to online learning, the technological divide seems to have been reflected in the early weeks of COVID-era instruction. Although a slightly larger percentage of public school faculty told pollsters that their schools had transitioned to distance-learning formats (77 percent, vs. 73 percent of private school teachers), they were only about half as likely 鈥� 32 percent vs. 61 percent 鈥� to report having real-time interactions with over three-quarters of their students in the spring of 2020. 

While 9 percent of private school teachers said they had no such interactions during that time, 13 percent of public school teachers did.

Geographic distinctions were also clear in the data. Among public school teachers, those employed in urban and suburban areas were comparatively more likely (86 percent and 87 percent, respectively) to say that all or some of their classes had moved online that spring than those teaching in towns or rural areas (75 percent and 77 percent, respectively).

While about half of city and suburban principals said they鈥檇 worked with internet providers to offer more home internet access to families, just 42 percent of principals in towns and 36 percent of those in rural areas agreed.

Other key takeaways from the report:

• Private school teachers were also significantly more likely to agree, either 鈥渟lightly鈥� or 鈥渟trongly,鈥� that they had access to the resources necessary to be effective in their teaching (76 percent, vs. only 61 percent of public school teachers). 
• More than twice as many private school teachers 鈥渟trongly鈥� agreed with that claim than public school teachers (37 percent vs. 17 percent).
• Interaction gaps were also apparent between teachers at charter schools vs. those at traditional public schools. In the first few months of the pandemic, 55 percent of charter school teachers said they taught real-time lessons to students who could participate through video or audio interaction; only 46 percent of district teachers said the same. 
• Charter school teachers were also somewhat more likely to report holding scheduled sessions with groups of students, offering one-on-one sessions, and convening office hours than were district school faculty.

Last August, when Florida鈥檚 Hillsborough County Public Schools began upgrading air filters in their K-12 buildings, the event was so significant that to document one of the first installations, at a Tampa elementary school.

When RAND Corp. researchers last spring with a list of 13 items that would make them feel safe about in-person schooling this fall, parents鈥� top priority wasn鈥檛 teacher or student vaccines, social distancing or regular COVID testing.

It was ventilation.

Perhaps that鈥檚 because COVID-19 has made our most basic act 鈥� breathing 鈥� newsworthy.

But therein lies the problem: In 2021, with an airborne virus still infecting Americans at a rate of , the heating and cooling systems in many U.S. public schools are nothing short of awful. Whether billions in new federal aid will be enough to help school districts upgrade an aging system anytime soon remains an open question.

While data on the scope of the problem are scarce, what little there are suggest that schools are looking at billions of dollars in deferred maintenance. A few examples:

• In Worcester, Mass., the district last summer said it would spend to upgrade heating and cooling systems in its 44 schools, some of which date back to the 1800s. Nearly half of its schools were built before 1940;
• In Denver, the school board spending $4.9 million to upgrade school heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems in more than 150 buildings after former Superintendent Susana Cordova said parents had been asking her specifically about HVAC upgrades.

Like many issues, this one hits low-income students hardest.

In a of school facilities by the National Center for Education Statistics and Westat, researchers found that schools serving the largest percentage of low-income students also had the largest percentage of air ventilation/filtration systems rated 鈥渇air or poor鈥� in permanent buildings.

The study found that in schools with the highest concentration of low-income students, 33 percent had such troubled systems. In schools with the lowest concentration, it was 27 percent.

In the RAND survey, nearly three in four parents put school air quality at the top of their school wishlist. Even among a subgroup of parents who were unsure whether they鈥檇 even send their kids back to school, ventilation came in as the most important safety indicator.

The dilemma is resonating beyond parents: Last fall, the non-profit Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER), with the New York State Labor Department on behalf of 44 employees in nine public school campuses across New York City, saying most school buildings were improperly ventilated. It also said the city鈥檚 鈥渕inimalistic鈥� ventilation standards don鈥檛 prevent the spread of the virus that causes COVID-19. The group wants inspectors to determine whether schools are ventilated and filtrated to adequately protect teachers, students, and staff.

Kyla Bennett, the group鈥檚 New England director, said the conditions in these schools were 鈥減retty horrifying.鈥�

鈥淭he inspections that they had done, most of the schools did not have windows that opened (in) the classrooms. They didn鈥檛 have the correct supply ventilation or exhaust ventilation in the rooms. I mean, some of them literally had zero ventilation.鈥�

She understands why windows in some cases don鈥檛 open. 鈥淭here鈥檚 noise out there. There鈥檚 pollution. …There’s danger, especially for small children, if the windows open wide enough. But the bottom line is that in order to make the schools safe for not just the students, but for the staff and the teachers, we need to improve the ventilation in the schools.鈥�

Nathaniel Styer, a city schools spokesperson, said the district鈥檚 public schools 鈥渨ere some of the safest places to be during this pandemic because of our focus on ventilation and safety. We ended the year with a .03 percent positivity rate, which never went above 1 percent and was consistently far below the city average. Our schools are safe and if any repairs need to be made to ventilation systems the impacted classrooms are closed until the problem is fixed.鈥�

Styer said the district only uses classrooms in which ventilation systems are working and operational, with the means to bring fresh air inside, circulate it, and ventilate the air outside. He also said every room was inspected multiple times by professional engineers and union inspectors.

The high costs of building repairs 鈥� as well as other priorities and the political gridlock gripping Washington, D.C. 鈥� likely mean that most families won鈥檛 get their school ventilation wishes granted by the time students return this fall.

Last December鈥檚 Covid-19 stimulus measure, as well as President 叠颈诲别苍鈥檚 proposed infrastructure legislation, could change conditions in schools. The stimulus includes $54.3 billion for states and school districts to shore up school facilities, including HVAC systems. But schools鈥� total price tag could be billions more, recent estimates suggest.

叠颈诲别苍鈥檚 could help as well. It proposes $50 billion in direct grants and another $50 billion leveraged through bonds to upgrade and build public schools. While its fate remains up in the air, a bipartisan group of congressional lawmakers last week of the proposal. A summary of the 鈥淩ebuilding America鈥檚 Infrastructure鈥� plan by the Problem Solvers Caucus endorses upgrading schools鈥� internet systems, but school ventilation.

Needed: $1 million 鈥� or more 鈥� per building

Much of what we know about school infrastructure these days comes from a 2020 study by the U.S. Government Accountability Office, which and found that 54 percent needed to update or replace 鈥渕ultiple building systems鈥� including HVAC. An estimated one in three schools needed to update their systems, it found. And 41 percent of districts needed to update or replace HVAC systems in at least half of their schools, totaling about 36,000 nationwide.

The price tag for upgrading these systems: about $1 million per building. If half of the 36,000 buildings get upgrades and the rest get entirely new HVAC systems, it could cost schools about $72 billion, the non-profit Learning Policy Institute .

Among educators themselves, the problem is hardly hidden 鈥� actually, most of them would agree with RAND鈥檚 findings, calling ventilation an urgent problem. When the American Society of Civil Engineers earlier this year graded infrastructure systems nationwide, ventilation upgrades topped schools鈥� most pressing concerns. More than half of districts 鈥� 53 percent 鈥� reported that they need to update or replace multiple building systems, including HVAC. The report estimated that schools need a in repairs. Taxpayers are currently investing only $490 billion, the group said, leaving a $380 billion shortfall.

While the engineers鈥� group gave the nation鈥檚 overall infrastructure a , it was even tougher on our public schools, handing them a .

It noted that in the decade between fiscal years 2008 and 2017, state capital funding for schools fell 31 percent, the equivalent of a $20 billion cut. In that period, 38 states cut school capital spending as a share of the state economy.

One of the report鈥檚 authors, California civil engineer Dan Cronquist, said in an interview that HVAC upgrades and replacements topped all other school officials鈥� concerns, including roofing, lighting, safety, plumbing, and even asbestos, lead, and mold remediation.

Air quality, he said, is 鈥渁 big issue,鈥� but he acknowledged that educators have a lot on their plates. 鈥淪chool buildings are not as a high-priority in some districts as other expenses.鈥�

When GAO researchers visited school districts in six states last year, they found that security 鈥渉ad become a top priority,鈥� often taking precedence over spending on building systems such as HVAC. It also found that in about half of districts nationwide, funding for school facilities came primarily from local sources such as property taxes.

In most cases, schools can鈥檛 rely on federal funding for ongoing, needed repairs, unless they鈥檙e located on military bases, receive federal Impact Aid, or are charter schools.

Upgrades don鈥檛 necessarily mean better air quality

suggest that schools use 鈥渕ultiple mitigation strategies鈥� to lower the risk of exposure, such as improving building ventilation, as well as masks and distancing. While most buildings won鈥檛 actually require new ventilation systems, CDC says, upgrades or improvements 鈥渃an increase the delivery of clean air and dilute potential contaminants.鈥� In buildings that are already up to code, it suggests using window fans, improving filtration, and using portable high-efficiency particulate air filtration systems, among other measures.

Even if they get upgrades, schools may not automatically enjoy better air quality if they don鈥檛 maintain and operate the systems properly.

In a study , before the pandemic hit, researchers from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of California, Davis, visited 104 California classrooms that had recently been retrofitted with new HVAC units. About half had high CO2 concentrations, researchers found, and many were 鈥渦nder-ventilated,鈥� likely due to improperly selected equipment, poor maintenance, or other issues.

The researchers concluded that better oversight of HVAC installation, as well as periodic testing and CO2听monitoring, would improve ventilation.

As for conditions in New York City schools, the PEER complaint is on hold after the state Public Employee Safety and Health Bureau said it didn鈥檛 have jurisdiction over COVID-19 cases, Bennett said. 鈥淲e鈥檙e looking at our options, but there鈥檚 no quick solution here.鈥�

She added, 鈥淭he bottom line is that this pandemic, this isn鈥檛 the end. This is something that鈥檚 going to be hanging over our heads 鈥� whether it鈥檚 COVID-19, that still hasn’t gone away, or whether it鈥檚 the next pandemic 鈥� we need to make sure that the ventilation in our schools is better than it is, because it鈥檚 not a safe working environment.鈥�